Abstract:

 The Yangtze River Delta is in eastern neotectonic subsidence area This area lies in the lowlying areas， with tidal flats and wetlands widely distributed Future sea level rise will intensify storm surge， saltwater intrusion and other disasters， which will cause huge losses to the regions socioeconomic development In this study， scenario simulation and vulnerability assessment methods were applied to evaluate the vulnerability of estuarine and coastal areas in Shanghai and quantify threatened zones of 2030 and 2050 under sea level rise and storm surge disaster scenarios Based on the existing disaster prevention， the results showed that the most vulnerable areas against flooding were the lowlying areas along the Huangpu River The vulnerability index of Shanghai in 2030 would be relatively low， and vulnerable areas mainly concentrate in the junction of Fengxian and Nanhui， Changxing and Hengsha islands and lowlying areas along the Huangpu River At that time， 062 million of population would be exposed to above 05 m， about 186% of the total population， with 227 people died （at 50% confidence interval）， and the economic losses would be 1152 billion yuan， 1372 billion yuan， 1632 billion yuan （respectively under the scenarios of economic growth rates of 8%， 9%， 10%）， about 15% of the total gross domestic product （GDP） of this city In 2050， the fragility of Shanghai would sharply rise， with vulnerable area expanding to 3546% of the total area， and distributed extensively Similar to typhoon No 9 711， 748 million of population would be exposed to above 05 m， about 2166% of the total population， with 5 976 people died （at 50% confidence level）， and the economic losses would be as high as 10 5581 billion yuan， 15 1248 billion yuan， 21 5959 billion yuan （respectively under the scenarios of economic growth of 8%， 9%， 10%）， representing 296% of the citys total GDP.