RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2018, Vol. 27 >> Issue (04): 725-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201804004

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Simulation of the Construction Land Expansion Based on the DynaCLUE Model in Taihu Basin

YE Gaobin1, SU Weizhong2, SUN Xiaoxiang3   

  1. (1. Shanghai Industrial Development Research and Appraisal Center, Shanghai 200092, China;2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China; 3. School of urban and planning, Yancheng Teachers University, Yancheng 224007, China
  • Online:2018-04-21

Abstract: It is one of the hot spots of the global land use/cover change research to simulate and predict regional land use changes quantitatively. While, simulation of the land use change from regional scale is one of effective ways to understand and explain process and trends of regional landuse changes. In recent years, various models have been used for land use change simulation, such as System dynamics model, Cellular automaton model, Agentbased, etc. Among them, the dynaclue model can integrate the historical expansion trend of land use and the change of national land use policy, and conduct appropriate land use scale control to achieve a better simulation effect. This paper, based on the Dyna-CLUE model, extracted a priori rules through 5 periods remote sensing image of landuse and the natural and socioeconomic data since 1985a in Taihu Basin, and simulated the growth process of land use under 3 different scenarios (cultivated land protection, ecological protection and comprehensive protection) in Taihu Basin. The results as follow: The Kappa coefficients are higher than 0.75 under the three simulation scenarios and it have high accuracy, indicating that the Dyna-CLUE model has strongly applicability to simulate land use change in the Taihu Basin. The simulation precision of the construction land expansion is the highest under the comprehensive protection scenario in 3 scenarios. The expansion of the construction land is dominated by the surrounding cities both in 2020 a and 2030 a. Among them, the cities with the largest amount of expansion are Shanghai, Jiaxing, Wuxi and Huzhou during 2010 and 2020 a, however, it become Jiaxing, Suzhou, Shanghai and Wuxi during 2020 and 2030 a. The simulation results of spatial expansion of construction land in 2020 a and 2030 a basically conforms to the trend of spatial expansion of construction land in Taihu Basin. The research methods and simulation results are relatively reliable, and it can provide certain reference for the implementation of land use planning in the process of urbanization, especially the spatial allocation of land use macro demand in Taihu basin.

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