RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (2): 394-400.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202002012

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Prediction on Potential Planting Area of Litchi chinensis in China by Using MaxEnt Model

LI Hong-qun1, LIU Xiao-li2, WANG Jian-hua1, FU Yong-yao1, JIN Dong-gui1   

  1. (1.School of Modern Agriculture and Bioengineering, Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing 408100, China;
    2.Libary, Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing 408100, China)
  • Online:2020-02-20 Published:2020-02-20

Abstract: Litchi fruit from a typical subtropical evergreen fruit tree, is known as the "king of fruits" and plays important roles in the fruit market at home and abroad. To provide a scientific basis for L. chinens’ expand production its potential planting area was simulated in China by using MaxEnt model under the current conditions based on 132 known coordinates and 22 environmental factors, and then the main influencing factors and threshold were also detected. The accuracy of Maxent model is excellent in predicting its potential planting area, with an AUC value of 0.986 and 0.976 for model training and testing. The main influencing factors were precipitation of driest quarter, annual mean temperature, min temperature of coldest month, temperature seasonality and mean temperature of warmest quarter with thresholds of 60-110 mm、21-24℃、7.5-14℃、31-37℃ and 28-30℃ respectively. The most suitable distribution area for L. chinens was in southeast Sichuan, southwest Chongqing, central and southern Guangxi, coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian, northern Hainan, northwestern Taiwan, northwestern and southwestern Guizhou, etc. The medium area is the outward expansion of these high distribution areas. Meanwhile, medium distribution area is also found in the south-central region of Yunnan, the Linzhi region of Tibet near the Indian and the scattered areas of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui Provinces. The suitable areas of different Provinces are as follows: Guangxi > Guangdong > Chongqing > Sichuan > Fujian > Hainan > Taiwan > Yunnan > Guizhou. The moderate suitable areas were Yunnan > Guangxi > Sichuan > Guangdong > Guizhou > Fujian > Chongqing > Hainan > Taiwan. The above information reflects the potential geographical distribution of L. chinens in China. Besides the traditional areas of Guangxi, Sichuan, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, Taiwan and Yunnan, suitable and moderate suitable areas such as Guizhou and Chongqing are also expanding planting areas.

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