RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (10): 2285-2295.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202010017

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Trends of Four Major Meteorological Disasters and the Impacts on Grain Yield in Anhui Province

CHEN Xiao-yi 1,2,3,YAO Yun 1,2,3 ,HUO Yan-feng 1,2,3,ZHANG Hong-qun 1,2,3,WANG Sheng 3,4   

  1. (1.Anhui Institute of Meteorological Science/Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,
    Hefei 230031, China; 2.Shouxian National Climatology Observatory, Shouxian 232200, China; 3.Huaihe River Basin Typical Farm
    Eco-meteorological Experiment Field of CMA, Shouxian 232200, China;4.Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China)
  • Online:2020-10-20 Published:2020-11-18

Abstract: In order to reveal the present situation and change rule of major meteorological disasters in Anhui Province and guarantee the stable and high yield of grain crops, disaster affected rate and damaged rate data of four major disasters (drought; flood; wind and hail disaster; low-temperature freezing and snow disaster) in 78 cities/counties in Anhui Province from 1986 to 2017 were collected and analyzed. By using the methods of climate trend rate, grey correlation and R/S analysis, the spatial and temporal variations and future development trend of four major meteorological disasters in Anhui Province and their correlations with total grain yield were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Disaster affected rate and damaged rate of the four major disasters all showed declining trends and were obviously lower in recent ten years. The high value areas of disaster affected rate and damaged rate mostly existed in Huaibei Area, Southern Anhui Mountain Area and Dabie Mountain Area, while the low value areas mostly existed in areas along Huaihe River, between Yangtze River and Huaihe River and along Yangtze River. (2) It was predicted that in the future, disaster affected rate and damaged rate of drought would decline continuously,and the flood would decline unnoticeably, while the wind and hail, low-temperature freezing and snow disasters would change from a downward trend to a steady or slightly upward trend. (3) Grey correlations between disaster affected /damaged rate of major disasters and total grain yield from high to low were as follows: flood, low-temperature freezing and snow disaster, drought, wind and hail. This indicates that flood is the main meteorological disaster affecting the grain yield in Anhui Province.

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