RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (11): 2406-2416.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202011008

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A Study on Forecast of Ecotourism Demand in Hunan Province Based on the Comparison of Five Models

ZOU  Fu-xia 1 , ZOU Dong-sheng 2   

  1. (1.Biological Science and Technology College, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128,China;2. Institute of ecological economics,Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China )
  • Online:2020-11-20 Published:2020-12-17

Abstract: Forecast of ecotourism demand in Hunan Province from the perspective of supply and demand is conducive to the optimal allocation of eco-tourism resources and the sustainable development of eco-tourism industry. In order to further understand the demand of eco-tourism market in Hunan Province, this study uses the relevant data of eco-tourism from 2008 to 2017 as sample data, and uses GM (1,1) prediction model, linear regression prediction model, nonparametric model, BP neural network prediction model and time series prediction model (2) to predict the demand of eco-tourism in Hunan Province, and obtains the highest simulation accuracy of linear regression model.Therefore, the linear regression model is used to predict the total ecological tourism revenue and the total number of ecological tourists in Hunan Province.The results show that the total ecological tourism revenue and total number of ecological tourists received in Hunan Province are in curve growth at medium-low speed: from 2021 to 2025, Top 5 cities and prefectures in total ecological tourism revenue are Changsha, Zhangjiajie, Yueyang, Changde, Xiangtan andYiyang ; Top5 cities and prefectures in the total number of ecological tourists received are Changsha, Changde, Hengyang, Chenzhou, Yiyang. Different cities and prefectures are unequal in total revenue and number of tourists, represented by Changde and Zhangjiajie.

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