Abstract: The changes in land use and the assessment of landscape ecological risk are of significant importance for regional ecological conservation and planning management. This study took the Qingzang Plateau as an example and employed the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) to analyze the driving factors of land use changes. Three future scenarios, namely inertial development, economic expansion, and ecological protection, for the period of 2030 to 2050 were constructed. These scenarios were used to simulate changes in land use and landscape ecological risk under each scenario. Results indicated that: (1) Over the past decade, the primary land use conversion pattern on the Qingzang Plateau involved the transformation of grassland and unused land. There was a tendency for conversion between grassland and forest, as well as between grassland and unused land. Factors contributing significantly to land use changes in unused land, grassland, and forest included DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and annual average temperature.  (2) Between 2030 and 2050, different regional land use changes may vary significantly across the three scenarios. Under the inertia development scenario, there is a noticeable expansion of water bodies and construction land, with areas of 1 627 km2and 10 km2, respectively. In the ecological protection scenario, forest and grassland may increase, covering areas of 232 km2 and 15 143 km2, respectively. In the economic development scenario, forest and grassland may decrease, covering areas of 224 km2 and 7 653 km2, while arable land and construction land is likely to increase, covering 146 km2and 24 km2.Therefore, protection policies for the Qingzang Plateau should be region-specific and tailored to the actual circumstances. (3) The landscape ecological risk on the Qingzang Plateau was found to exhibit a spatial distribution pattern with higher risk in the northwest and lower risk in the southeast, primarily in areas of lower risk. Under the inertial development scenario, ecological risk between 2030 and 2050 exhibit a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the economic expansion scenario, ecological risk may significantly increase between 2030 and 2050, with the highest-risk areas experiencing the most significant increase, covering an area of 56 051 km2. Conversely, in the ecological protection scenario, ecological risk substantially may decrease between 2030 and 2050, with lower-risk areas experiencing the most substantial increase, covering an area of 16 136 km2.These findings can serve as a decision reference for ecological protection and governance on the Qingzang Plateau.