Abstract: Multi-scale assessment and scenario analysis of ecological vulnerability are of great significance for understanding the dynamic changes of regional ecological environment and systematic comprehensive governance.Based on the Stress-state-response (PSR) analysis framework, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system and a measurement model of ecological vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by connecting ordered weighted average (OWA) on the entropy weight method (EWM).Furthermore, exploratory spatial data analysis methods such as kernel density estimation, Moran index, and natural break point method were employed to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of its ecological vulnerability from multiple perspectives.Multiple scenarios were set up to predict the changing trends in the future.The results showed that: (1) at the overall level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, ecological vulnerability presented a significant positive correlation.Locally, there existed agglomeration characteristics of "high-high" and "low-low".The western region demonstrated the highest value, followed by the central region, and the lowest in the eastern region.The high-value areas of ecological vulnerability were mainly concentrated in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan-Chongqing region, especially in cities such as Chongqing, Kunming, Qujing, and Zhaotong.(2) Under the "ecological protection type" decision-making, the scenario model was shown in better line with the current sustainable development requirements of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, which was "not engaging in large-scale development, but jointly focusing on large-scale protection"