RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (01): 15-25.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201701003

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PROJECTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION CARBON EMISSION PEAK FOR JIANGSU, ZHEJIANG AND SHANGHAI UNDER DIFFERENT ENERGY POLICIES

HUANG Rui1,2,3, LU Yu-qi1,2,3, LU Meng-qiu1,2,3   

  1. 1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment for the Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
    3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2016-06-08 Revised:2016-08-28 Online:2017-01-20
  • Supported by:
    Key program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41430635);Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2016M600429);General Program of Universities National Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(16KJB170003)

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Abstract: To achieve the target of peaked CO2 emission around 2030, China eventually needs to implement the policies at the regional level. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as the pioneer of China's economy, their energy conservation and emissions reduction policy plays a demonstration role for other provinces. Based on balanced economic growth model, in this paper we projected future energy consumption carbon emissions for Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, simulated carbon emissions trend under different energy policy scenarios, and compared the carbon emission reduction effect from energy consumption with the baseline scenario. The results show that:(1)under the benchmark scenario, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai's energy consumption carbon emissions peak appears in 2034, 2033 and 2032, respectively. (2)The impact of different energy policies on carbon peak is different. Under energy structure adjustment scenario and energy efficiency improvement scenarios, energy consumption carbon peak of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, appear before 2030, which could complete the target reaching carbon emissions peak in 2030. Comprehensive energy policy scenario simulation results show that while adjusting energy structure and improving energy efficiency, carbon emission reduction effect is more obvious.

Key words: energy consumption, carbon emissions, energy structure, energy consumption efficiency

CLC Number: 

  • F426.2
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