长江中下游夏季极端降水事件频次的统计降尺度模拟与预估

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201705015

Abstract

Abstract: Using historical and scenario simulation results from three CIMP5 climate models, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observed precipitation data over Yangtze River Basin, the summer extreme precipitation event frequency over the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River (YRF) has been simulated and estimated by using the statistical downscaling method. First, the predictors that significantly influence YRF have been extracted by correlation analysis. The predictors with high predictive power were selected from high correlations between observation YRF and other variables. Then the downscaling models were established by using the multi-linear regression method. Cross-validation test showed that the downscaling models have high skill for YRF and ensemble results of three downscaling models can further improve the simulation skill. Finally, the statistical downscaling model was applied to three scenarios of CMIP5 to construct future climate change of YRF. For future climate change scenarios, the YRF increases during following several decades, and the increased amplitude for high emission scenarios is higher than that of low emission scenarios during middle and later 21th centuries.

Key words: extreme precipitation event, statistical downscaling, estimation

CLC Number:

P426.6

CHEN Hong. SIMULATION AND ESTIMATION OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT FREQUENCY IN THE MIDDLE-LOWER REACHES OF YANGTZE RIVER USING STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING METHOD[J].RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(05): 771-777.

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SIMULATION AND ESTIMATION OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT FREQUENCY IN THE MIDDLE-LOWER REACHES OF YANGTZE RIVER USING STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING METHOD

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