RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (2): 511-525.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202002024

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Prediction of the Influence of Geoengineering on the Temperature in Different Regions of China Under the Background of 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target

KONG Feng1,2,3    

  1. (1. School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Center for Crisis Management Research, 
    Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 3. Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
  • Online:2020-02-20 Published:2020-02-20

Abstract: Based on the daily average temperature data from 2010 to 2099 in geoengineering (G4 experiment) and non-geoengineering (RCP4.5) scenarios of BNU-ESM model, this research diagnosed the influence of geoengineering implementation on temperature change in different regions of China by using various mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that: Firstly, under the two scenarios from 2010 to 2099, the annual mean temperature in different regions of China showed an increasing trend. Geoengineering effectively reduced the increasing trend of annual average temperature in different regions of China from 2020 to 2069. Secondly, the annual average temperature in most areas of China dropped by more than 1.0℃ from 2020 to 2069, which played an active role in promoting the realization of the 1.5℃ temperature control target set by the Paris Agreement. And there was no retaliatory rebound in temperature in different regions of China from 2070 to 2099 after the implementation of geoengineering. Thirdly, the average annual temperature in different regions of China under two scenarios had changed from 2010 to 2099. The implementation of geoengineering had delayed the abrupt change of temperature in most areas of China for 11-19 years. Fourthly, high energy spectral oscillations of annual mean temperature series in different regions of China based on cross wavelet transform showed that the high frequency annual mean temperature in the two scenarios had inverse correlation on the scale of 1-4 years, indicating that geoengineering had changed the direction of temperature change in a short time. Low energy spectral oscillations of annual mean temperature series in different regions of China based on wavelet coherence showed that geoengineering had not fundamentally changed the long term trend of temperature change.

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