RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (5): 1076-1087.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202105005

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Analysis and Prediction of Water Ecological Footprint of Huaihe River Basin Based on BP Neural Network

AN Hui,FAN Li-juan,WU Hai-lin,YANG Wen-jing   

  1. (College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)
  • Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-06-15

Abstract: Using the ecological footprint theory and calculation methods, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the water resources in the Huaihe River Basin were measured, and five indicators including the ecological footprint of the ecological footprint were introduced. The spatial and temporal changes of water resources in five provinces including Shandong and Hubei were systematically analyzed. The BP neural network with the ability to transform and self-learn can accurately predict the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in the Huaihe River Basin in 2017-2025. Studies show that: (1) The ecological footprint and bearing capacity of water resources in the Huaihe River Basin are generally on the rise, the ecological deficits and pressures on water resources are too large, and water resources security is threatened. (2) The water resources of all five provinces are in deficit, the ecological pressure index is greater than 1, and the development and utilization of water resources is unsustainable. Among them, Jiangsu has a large load index and small potential for water resources development, and the other four provinces are relatively easy. Development. (3) The forecast results indicate that the ecological pressure of water resources is relatively large, and water resources are in an overexploitation and utilization state most of the time. The supply of water resources is less than the demand for economic development within the basin. In some years, external water needs to be supplemented. The rate is low, and water resources security is in a critical state.

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