RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (5): 1016-1028.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202205007

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An Analysis of the Spatial Changes of County Economy and Society in Hubei Province from the Perspective of Population Shrinkage

ZHANG Jing,TANG Xiao-chao   

  1. (Institute of Economic Research on Changjiang River Valley,Hubei Academy of Social Sciences, Wuhan 430077,China)
  • Online:2022-05-20 Published:2022-06-02

Abstract: In China, population shrinkage has become a major issue and challenge during the process of regional high-quality development and new urbanization. Based on the Hubei Province population-related data from 2000 to 2015, this paper focuses on the spatial change characteristics of population shrinkage in 91 county-level administrative units to cross-analyzs the evolution pattern in the economic and spatial dimensions of each county during the process of population change, and studies the impact mechanism of population shrinkage with geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model. The study draws the following conclusions: (1) From 2000 to 2015, a total of 57  counties (cities and districts)  in Hubei Province experienced population shrinkage, of which 6  counties (cities and districts)  experienced urban population shrinkage, and 72  counties (cities and districts)  experienced rural population shrinkage.Since 2006, the total population and urban shrinkage in Hubei Province have decreased, forming a pattern of long-term urban population growth and rural population shrinking. (2) From the perspective of economic and spatial dimensions, urbanization and Return migration have improved the overall economic level and economic density. However, the economic hot spots have not formed a proliferation effect on its surrounding areas. In some areas, the unreasonable construction land planning caused space shrinkage in the early stage,and tends to be intensive and rational in the later stage. (3)The impact degree of influencing factors, industrial structure>government investment>population structure>market size, various factors form different influence in different regions.Finally,several strategies for coping with population shrinkage are proposed such as coordinate regional strategic layout,optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,promotion of human-centered urbanization, improvement of regional development quality and optimization of fiscal expenditure structure.

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