Abstract: Effective measurement and assessment of ecosystem service values are crucial for formulating ecological compensation, land remediation policies, and improving human welfare. Taking the Minjiang River Basin as the study area, based on the three periods of land use data in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model and the dynamic equivalent method were applied to quantitatively assess the ecosystem service value of the study area in 2030. Additionally, the study formed a policy-oriented scenario based on the key indicator of arable land quality in arable land protection as an orientation. It was then analyzed in comparison with the simulation of ecological service value under the natural development scenario. The results showed that: (1)The spatial distribution pattern of land use in the Minjiang River Basin in 2030 remained consistent across different scenarios, but the trends in land use change differed. In the policy-oriented scenario, the growth rate of construction land area was effectively controlled, there was a shift from a decrease to an increase in the area of woodland and grassland. The decrease rate of arable land area was significantly slowed down. Compared with the natural scenario, 90.94 km2 of arable land of average grade or higher was protected from encroachment, ensuring the effective preservation of arable land quality; (2) In 2030, the ecological service value of the Minjiang River Basin would be 133.459 billion yuan under the natural development scenario and 134.765 billion yuan under the policy-oriented scenario. The spatial distribution showed higher values in the northern and southwestern regions, and lower values in the central and southeastern regions. In the policy-oriented scenario, the range and concentration of cold spots of ecological service value changes were significantly reduced compared with the natural development scenario, and the loss of value was effectively mitigated; (3) The interconversion of cropland and forest land was the main source of contribution to future ESV gains and losses in the Minjiang River Basin, and the contribution of cropland to construction land was significantly lower under the policy-oriented scenario, compared with the natural scenario, at 4.3%. The results of the study can provide theoretical references and assist in decision making for the construction of ecological civilization and sustainable development strategies in the Minjiang River Basin.