RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (8): 1679-1690.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202408007

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Risk Assessment of Shoreline Resources Development and Utilization Based on Set Pair Analysis: A Case Study of the Jiangsu Section of the Yangtze River

FANG Guo-hua,YANG Yun,ZHANG Chen,LU Yang-yang   

  1. (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China) 
  • Online:2024-08-20 Published:2024-08-21

Abstract: Scientifically and objectively assessing the risk level of development and utilization of shoreline resources is the cornerstone for rational protection and development and utilization of shoreline resources. Based on the DPSIR model, the risk assessment index system of shoreline resource development and utilization was constructed. The subjective and objective weights of each index were calculated by the sequential relationship analysis method and the CRITIC method. The combined weights of indicators were calculated by the principle of game theory. The risk assessment model of shoreline resource development and utilization was constructed based on the set pair analysis theory. The spatial distribution characteristics of risks were analyzed by combining Moran′s I, cold and hot spot analysis. Finally, countermeasures for shoreline resource management and protection were proposed. Taking the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River as a case study, the results indicated that the overall risk level of shoreline resource development and utilization was relatively low. Areas with higher risks were concentrated in the Jiangbei New Area and Qixia District of Nanjing, as well as the estuary of Suzhou. The spatial distribution of risk exhibited clear clustering, with hotspots found in the adjacent areas of Nanjing, Yizheng, and Zhenjiang, as well as the region around the estuary of the Yangtze River in Chongchuan District of Nantong and Suzhou Municipality. These areas were identified as the key regions for future risk management and control of shoreline resource development and utilization.Finally, based on the results of the risk assessment, strategies for the management and protection of shoreline resources in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River were proposed, in terms of optimizing the layout of ports and terminals, enhancing shoreline supervision, and strengthening shoreline ecological restoration.

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