Abstract: Arable land contributes to both carbon emission and absorption, and thus plays a significant role in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality ("dual carbon") goals.  Using the emission coefficient method, gravity transfer analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis, we investigated the spatio-temporal variations in the carbon effects of arable land changes in Jiangsu province over the past 30 years.  We found that: (1) The majority of the region exhibited an overall carbon absorption effect in terms of net carbon emissions over the 30-year period.  In comparison to southern Jiangsu, the carbon absorption effect was relatively higher in northern and central Jiangsu.  All counties demonstrated a decrease in the net carbon emission of arable land inflows, with northern Jiangsu experiencing a pronounced decline compared to southern Jiangsu.  Conversely, an increase in net carbon emission increment was observed for arable land outflows in all counties, with central and northern Jiangsu witnessing a faster annual increase.  The overall carbon sequestration of arable land was higher in coastal and southern regions, while lower in other counties.  (2) An increase in economics led to an intensification of arable land carbon emissions, while the secondary and tertiary industry GDP contributed negatively across the region.  The increase of urban and industrial land use imposed the greatest positive contribution to the intensity of carbon emissions.  Rural land use also exhibited a positive effect.  The contribution of transportation location factors varied across different regions, whereas elevation, vegetation, and water-related factors revealed a positive contribution.  Conversely, slope exhibited a negative contribution, and the distance to geological hazards also had negative contributions in most regions.  This study revealed the spatio-temporal variations in the carbon emission contribution and the associated driving forces of arable land changes.  Based on this, relevant policy recommendations were proposed from the perspective of land resource management to promote Jiangsu Province in achieving the "dual carbon" goals.  These results provided scientific decision support for formulating corresponding strategies to reduce carbon emissions and to increase carbon sequestration.  This study might also serve as a methodological reference for relevant studies in other regions.