RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (2): 268-279.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202502003

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Evolution Pattern and Prediction of Ecological Resilience of Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

WANG Zhao-feng,LIANG Zhi-qiang   

  1. (College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China)
  • Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-28

Abstract: A systematic evaluation of the ecological resilience of cities situated within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is essential in enhancing the risk avoidance and protection of ecological security. An ecological resilience assessment model was established based on three attribute levels of "resistance-responsiveness-renewal". A total of 110 cities at regional scale within the YREB were selected as study cases. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, Kernel density estimation, and traditional and spatial Markov transfer probability matrices were adopted to explore the evolution of municipal ecological resilience for the period of 2011-2021. The results demonstrated that: (1) The horizontal eco-resilience of YREB cities was rising with fluctuations, but the rise was relatively small, and the optimization process of ecological resilience was slow. A decreasing development was noted from provincial cities of Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei and Nanchang to peripheral cities, which formed a distinctive spatial distribution pattern of "core-periphery". (2) A strong stability in the shift of eco-resilience status of cities across the YREB and the neighboring background played a significant role in the transfer of ecological resilience of cities. (3) In terms of forecasting development trends, the eco- resilience of YREB cities showed a relatively positive picture, i.e. the level of eco- resilience along with the route incrementally rose over time and converged towards a high resilience zone.

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