Abstract: Based on the land use data of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration in 2000, 2010, and 2020, this article analyzed the growth and decline of the " Production-Living-Ecological" (PLE) space in the past 20 years.Using 2020 as the benchmark, a patch generated land use change simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate and analyze the different evolutionary characteristics and ecological environmental effects of the "PLE" space in the region in 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, economic priority, and ecological protection.The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the production space of the YRD urban agglomeration would continue to shrink.The living space would continue to expand, and the ecological space would first increase and then decrease.(2) From 2000 to 2020, the ecological environment quality index would continue to decrease from 0.4837 to 0.4765, and the low-quality areas would continue to expand.The continuous reduction of agricultural production land and the occupation of forest and water ecological land were the main factors leading to the decline in ecological environment quality.(3) The living space would expand and the production space would shrink in all the three scenarios.The production land would decrease the least in the ecological protection scenario.(4) Under the ecological protection scenario, the ecological environment quality index of the study area was the highest, and the ecological environment quality level showed a trend of continuous improvement.It was suggested that strengthening the protection of cultivated land and forest land, rational planning and layout, and improving urban green space would promote the sustainable development of social economy under the ecological protection scenario.