Abstract: Kunming city is the focal point of economic and social advancement in Yunnan Province.The city faced a pronounced contradiction of the rapid pace of socioeconomic progress and the imperative of ecological preservation of land resources.This study utilized the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model to assess land ecological security from 2000 to 2020.Key factors impeding land ecological security were identified using the obstacle degree model.Using the PLUS model, scenarios reflecting natural development, ecological protection, and cultivated land preservation were simulated for 2040.The results revealed that: (1) Land ecological security warnings for 2000-2020 exhibited a spatial distribution trend of high in the central regions and low in the periphery.Higher values were presented in the north compared to the southwest.Evident challenges in balancing development and protection around Dianchi Lake were found.(2) Inefficient land utilization, exacerbated by social and economic pressures, was the primary threat to land ecological security.(3) Attaining synergy between socio-economic and ecological benefits proved elusive within singular scenarios, which necessitated a comprehensive approach across multiple scenarios to regulate land changes effectively.Exploring efficient land utilization methods within the constraints of limited resource-carrying capacity was crucial for Kunming city to reconcile the contradiction between conservation and development, which necessitated a shift in the development paradigm and enhancement of land use efficiency, alongside intensified land use management.