Abstract:
Jiangxi Province, recognized as a pivotal demonstration zone in the nation’s ecological civilization construction, plays a crucial role in the ecosystem water production services within the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The ecological services have a profound impact on not only its own development but also on the ecological progress of the downstream regions of the belt. The pattern of ecosystem services is changing under the influence of climate change. To further recognize and understand the impacts of climate change on water production services in Jiangxi Province, the climate change scenario SSPs were coupled with the InVEST model to explore the spatial and temporal changes in ecosystem water production services from 2000 to 2060. A quantitative impact assessment model was constructed to analyze the impact mechanisms. The results showed that: (i) The multi-year average water yield from 2000 to 2020 was 1 234.91 mm, while the projected average yields for the four future SSPs scenarios were estimated to range between 1 386.04 mm and 1 472.99 mm for the period of 2021 to 2060. (ii) Among the four climate change scenarios, the SSPs1-2.6 scenario exhibited the most significant enhancement in water production services, followed by the SSPs5-8.5, SSPs3-7.0, and SSPs2-4.5 scenarios. (iii) The spatial distribution of the water production service in Jiangxi Province due to climate change showed a pattern of high values in the south and low values in the north, with significant spatial variability. (iv) In the four scenarios, the comprehensive index K* of water production services in various cities of Jiangxi Province ranged from 0.04 to 0.28, indicating that climate change was conducive to the water supply services. (v) The impact evaluation model established in this study offered valuable scientific support for ecosystem restoration, biodiversity conservation, and the optimization of water resource management in Jiangxi Province.