RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (12): 2753-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202512011

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Optimization of Land Use Structure in Wuhan-Ezhou-Huanggang-Huangshi Metropolitan Area: A Multi-scenario Simulation under the Perspective of Carbon-oxygen Balance

ZHANG Zuo, LYU Ya-ru, LIU Xiao-ge, SONG Xiang-xiang   

  1. (School of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Online:2025-12-20 Published:2025-12-25

Abstract: Optimizing land use structures in metropolitan areas from a carbon-oxygen balance perspective is critical for enhancing ecosystem services and advancing sustainable development.This study constructed a multi-objective optimization framework that integrated ecological status assessment, land demand forecasting, and multi-scenario simulation.The carbon-oxygen balance method, ARIMA model, and NSGA-II algorithm were adopted.Taking 2020 as the base year and 2030 as the target year, the carbon-oxygen balance of land use and multi-scenario land-use optimization plans in Wuhan-Ezhou-Huanggang-Huangshi (WEHH) metropolitan area were evaluated and analyzed.The results showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the carbon emissions in WEHH increased by 31.8%, and oxygen consumption by 27.34%, which indicated a significant increase of pressure for the ecosystem.Meanwhile, a notable decrease was identified in the carbon fixation and oxygen release capacity of the ecological land.The decrease for the cultivated land and forest land was at a rate of4.18% and 3.64%, respectively.(2) Elasticity analysis revealed that there existed a greater adjustment potential for the construction and cultivated land, while the wetlands and the unused land should remain restricted.The forest land, unused land, cultivated land, and grassland exhibited a high sensitivity (≈0.6) to uncertainty, which implied a need for prioritized and adaptive allocation.(3) Multi-scenario optimization highlighted trade-offs across development pathways.The scenario 1 of ecological-economic balance might moderately expand the construction and forest land, and improve ecological benefits by 1.6% and economic output by 19.3%.Scenario 2 of prioritizing ecological integrity by an increase of forest land of 6.6% and an enhancement of wetland and grassland protection might achieve an ecological benefit of 3.1% at a cost of 3.5% decline in economic performance.This scenario was appropriate for ecologically sensitive areas.Scenario 3 that emphasized economic growth through a 33.8% expansion of construction land, might boost economic benefit by 38.3%, but might reduce ecological benefits by 1.6%.Scenario 3 was more applicable to highly industrialized areas.Overall, it was essential to incorporate ecological carrying capacity as a core constraint, and to adopt differentiated, goal-oriented land governance strategies, for guiding sustainable land use transitions in metropolitan areas.

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