Abstract: Based on the carbon emission data of 74 representative cities in the three major urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2022, this paper systematically analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of their carbon emissions and predicted the carbon peaking time by using Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chain and STIRPAT model. It was concluded that: (1) The distribution of carbon emissions within the three major urban agglomerations was uneven. The stability was relatively high, and there was a significant difference in carbon emissions in the upstream and downstream urban agglomerations. (2) The spatial overlap of carbon emissions among urban agglomerations was significant, and there existed high-carbon cities in urban agglomerations in the upper and middle reaches. (3) The overall carbon emissions had risen. The gap between cities had widened, and the gradient of carbon emissions was relatively stable. (4) High-carbon emission cities had a significant driving effect on the surrounding cities. A high probability was found for the urban groups with lower and higher carbon emissions to maintain their original levels in the subsequent stages. (5) Among the three scenarios, the carbon emissions under the basic and low-carbon scenarios would peak in 2030 and 2025, respectively. However, under the high-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions would continue to rise. To achieve the carbon peaking goal of the urban agglomerations, it was necessary to implement differentiated carbon emission strategies, and pay attention to the research and application of green digital technology. It was also suggested to implement differentiated carbon emission strategies,to focus on the R&D and application of green digital techologies,to advance the process of digitization and intellectualization of energy utilization, to improve the regulatory system of carbon emission, and to enhance public awareness of environmental protection.