Abstract: Aquatic vegetation serves as a critical indicator of lake ecosystems and is subject to the joint effects of climate change and human activities. This study developed a decision tree classification model integrating NDVI, AI, and SVSI indices based on Landsat imagery to extract the spatiotemporal distribution of aquatic vegetation in Lake Taihu from 2000 to 2024. The influence mechanisms of meteorological and water quality factors on vegetation coverage were analyzed using a combined method of the traditional and machine learning approaches. Results demonstrated that the proposed remote sensing identification model exhibited demonstrated robust performance across TM/ETM+/OLI images, with overall classification accuracy exceeding 88% and Kappa coefficients surpassing 0.75. OLI imagery achieved optimal accuracy (92.59% overall accuracy, Kappa coefficient 0.84) due to higher signal-to-noise ratios. Aquatic vegetation in Lake Taihu predominantly distributed in East Lake, Xukou Bay, and Gonghu Bay, with summer coverage significantly exceeding winter levels (the average difference is 47.6 km2). A turning point was detected in 2010 in terms of the spatiotemporal variation of aquatic vegetation coverage. The summer vegetation coverage declined from the peak in 2000 (217 km2) to the minimum in 2012 (177 km2) before recovering, while the winter coverage showed a stable recovery after 2011. Driving force analysis indicated that in summer, meteorological conditions and chlorophyll-a (Chla) jointly influenced vegetation growth. Phytoplankton, as the primary source of Chla, exerted the strongest negative effects. During winter, meteorological influence diminished, and total nitrogen (TN) emerged as the dominant factor with significant negative impacts on vegetation growth. Therefore, effective protection of Lake Taihu ecosystem necessitated the dual control strategies targeting summer algal blooms and winter nutrient discharges. This study provided a scientific basis for its ecological remediation.
Key words：Lake Taihu；Landsat；aquatic vegetation；driving force

鄱阳湖湿地典型植食性候鸟生境适宜性及其对水位的响应研究
吴静1，2，3，杨桂山2,3,4*，万荣荣2,3，王晓龙2,3，杨素2,3，王浩然2,3
(1. 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院，江苏 南京 210044；2.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，湖泊与流域水安全全国重点实验室，江苏 南京 211135; 3.中国科学院大学南京学院，江苏 南京211135；4.河海大学地理与遥感学院，江苏 南京 211000)
摘要： 鄱阳湖作为大型洪泛湿地是植食性候鸟的重要越冬地，其湿地生态系统的适宜性受到水位波动的显著影响。基于2017~2022年高时空分辨率的Sentinel-2影像、植被生物量实测数据及高精度湖盆地形数据，从候鸟生境隐蔽条件、食源丰富程度、食源适口程度构建生境适宜度指数（HSI），评估了不同水文年类型下鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区（鄱阳湖保护区）植食性候鸟越冬期旬尺度生境适宜度的时空分异特征。研究进一步分析了水位波动与候鸟栖息地适宜性之间的响应关系，并揭示了不同水文年越冬期各阶段水位变化对候鸟栖息地的影响规律。结果表明：（1）鄱阳湖保护区植食性候鸟的适宜水位为9.56~11.69 m（吴淞高程），该范围内生境适宜度最高；（2）平水年的水文条件为越冬候鸟提供了最适配的栖息环境，特别是在关键时段（12月），水位的稳定性显著提升了栖息地适宜度；（3）平水年不同阶段的水位变化对适宜生境的影响存在显著差异，越冬前期（9~11月）水位下降有利于满足觅食需求，而后期（2~3月）水位上升则更有利于提供稳定的栖息空间。研究指出，水位管理的灵活性和精准度是确保候鸟栖息地适宜性的重要因素，水位调控应根据不同水文年型的水位波动特征进行差异化管理。
关键词： 生境适宜度指数（HSI）；水文年；水位调控；适宜水位；鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区
中图分类号： P343.3文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0379-13
DOI：10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202602008
Habitat Suitability of Typical Herbivorous Migratory Birds in the Poyang Lake Wetland and its Response to Water Level
WU Jing1,2,3，YANG Gui-shan2,3,4，WAN Rong-rong2,3，WANG Xiao-long2,3,YANG Su2,3,WANG Hao-ran2,3
(1. College of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China; 3. College of Nanjing, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China; 4. College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai university, Nanjing 211000, China)
Abstract：As a large floodplain wetland, Poyang Lake is a crucial wintering ground for herbivorous migratory birds. The suitability of its wetland ecosystem is significantly affected by water level fluctuations. Using high-resolution Sentinel-2 images (2017-2022), measured vegetation biomass data, and high-precision topographic data from the lake basin, a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) was developed based on concealment conditions, food abundance, and forage palatability. The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of habitat suitability were evaluated at a ten-day scale during the wintering period across different hydrological years in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve (PLNNR). Furthermore, we analyzed the response of habitat suitability to water level fluctuations, elucidating the impacts of water level dynamics at different wintering stages under varying hydrological years. The results indicated that: (1) The suitable water level range for herbivorous migratory birds in PLNNR was 9.56~11.69 m (Wusong elevation), corresponding to the highest habitat suitability. (2) During normal hydrological years, stable water levels, especially in critical periods (December), significantly enhanced habitat suitability for wintering birds. (3) Water level fluctuations in different stages of normal hydrological years exerted distinct influences on habitat suitability-falling water levels in the early wintering period (September to November) facilitated foraging, while rising water levels (February to March) in the later stages provided stable roosting space. This study underscored the importance of flexible and precise water level management in maintaining habitat suitability for migratory birds. Water level regulation strategies should be adapted to the fluctuation patterns of different hydrological years.
Key words：Habitat Suitability Index (HSI)；hydrological years；water level regulation；suitable water levels; Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve

气候-土壤-微生物对金沙江干热河谷电站季节性水位波动的响应
辛浩然1,2 ,孙然好1,2 ,孙龙1, 2*
（1.中国科学院生态环境研究中心，区域与城市生态安全全国重点实验室，北京 100085;2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049）
摘要： 基于金沙江下游四座梯级电站（乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝）的实地监测数据，评估库区季节性水位波动对气象因子、土壤因子及土壤微生物群落的综合效应。结果显示：4月Shannon与Pielou指数均表现出显著空间异质性(H=13.997 3, p<0.01，H=15.098 5, p<0.01)；PLFA总量在两个月份均无显著分异，表明微生物生物量与群落结构整体均一，可能受基质趋同化或生态位稳定性影响。PCA结果揭示，4月PC1解释方差较高(气象-土壤60.4%，气象-微生物69.2%)，因子关联集中且区域分异显著；而9月PC1解释方差下降(气象-土壤38.6%，气象-微生物42.3%)，显示因子关联分散、区域差异减弱。SEM分析进一步表明，水位稳定期气候因子受Soil(0.561***)与VPD(0.701*)正向驱动，土壤因子对微生物群落结构具有显著正效应(0.323*)；水位上升期气候因子对微生物直接调控增强(0.531*)，土壤贡献主要由TN(0.592*)、SAP(0.774*)和pH(0.65**)主导，SOC作用较弱(0.002 3)。总体而言，电站建设下的水位波动改变了“气象-土壤-微生物”耦合结构，在低水位期异质性突出，高水位期趋于均质化。研究结果为干热河谷水库生态效应评估与流域管理提供了定量依据。
关键词： 金沙江；干热河谷；局地气候；土壤微生物；土壤性质
中图分类号： X143文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0392-12
DOI：10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202602009
Response of Climate-Soil-Microbe System to Seasonal Water-Level Fluctuations in the Dry-Hot Valley of the Jinsha River Hydropower Stations 
XIN Hao-ran 1, 2, SUN Ran-hao 1, 2, SUN Long 1,2
（1. State Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China；2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China）
Abstract：Seasonal water-level fluctuations in large reservoirs profoundly alter terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, yet their impacts on climate-soil-microbe interactions in dry-hot valleys remain poorly understood. Here, we combined field monitoring across four cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River (Wudongde, Baihetan, Xiluodu, and Xiangjiaba) with multivariate analyses to evaluate ecosystem responses to hydrological regulation. Diversity indices showed clear seasonal dynamics, i.e., both Shannon and Pielou indices exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity in April (H=13.997 3, p<0.01; H=15.095 5, p<0.01), but not in September, whereas microbial biomass (PLFA) remained spatially homogeneous across both months. This suggested niche stability or substrate convergence. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated stronger clustering and clearer reservoir separation in April, with PC1 explaining 60.4% of variance in climate-soil interactions and 69.2% in climate-microbe associations. By contrast, explained variance declined in September (38.6% and 42.3%, respectively), reflecting dispersed associations and weakened spatial differentiation. Structural equation modeling (SEM) further revealed that during stable water levels, climate was positively driven by soil (0.561***) and vapor pressure deficit (0.701*), while soil exerted a positive effect on microbes (0.323*). During water-level rise, direct climatic control on microbes intensified (0.531*), and soil effects were dominated by TN (0.592*), SAP (0.774*), and pH (0.65**), with SOC contributing marginally (0.002 3). These findings demonstrated that cascade reservoir impoundment reshaped climate-soil-microbe linkages. The microbial diversity responded sensitively to hydrological disturbances while biomass remained stable. Our study provided quantitative evidence for assessing ecological impacts of reservoir operation in dry-hot valleys and highlighted the role of hydrological regulation in mediating land-microbe coupling.
Key words：Jinsha River; dry-hot valley; local climate; soil microorganisms; soil properties


生态环境
长江经济带退耕还林工程对区域生态系统服务价值的影响研究
柯新利，吴璠，何利杰，周青*
(华中农业大学公共管理学院，湖北 武汉 430070)
摘要：退耕还林工程（以下简称“工程”）作为重要的生态建设活动，其实施所造成的区域差异化生态效应及权衡关系尚缺乏定量解析。研究耦合FLUS-InVEST模型，评估了长江经济带退耕还林工程的实施成效及其生态效益，系统揭示流域上、中、下游生态系统服务价值的区际梯度差异与权衡关系，并模拟了未来不同情景下工程实施的生态效益。结果表明：（1）2000~2020年间，全域退耕还林面积达144×105 km2，其中上游（021×105 km2）、中游（012×105 km2）、下游（004×105 km2）呈现梯度递减格局。城镇化进程在一定程度上制约了工程实施成效，导致中、下游林地面积较工程初期分别减少了002×105 和001×105  km2。（2）工程导致区域间生态系统服务呈现协同与权衡关系，上游碳储量增加376亿 t，中游土壤保持量提升624亿t；但下游粮食产量（-31199万 t）与生境质量指标值均降幅显著（-025）。（3）情景模拟显示，生态优先情景下（2040年）生态系统服务总价值较2020年提升了520%，优于自然发展情景（-131%）与坡度导向情景（-3241%），上、中、下游总价值分别提升022、002和001。未来应进一步巩固长江经济带上游碳汇优势、强化中游水土保持，并恢复下游粮食产能，实现区际优势互补与整体效益最大化。
关键词： 退耕还林工程；生态系统服务；土地利用情景模拟；权衡协同；InVEST模型
中图分类号： X171文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0404-13
DOI：1011870/cjlyzyyhj202602010

Impact of the Grain for Green Program in the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the Value of Regional Ecosystem Services
KE Xin-li, WU Fan, HE Li-jie , ZHOU Qing
（College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China）
Abstract：As a key ecological conservation initiative, the Grain for Green Program (hereinafter referred to as the "Program") has yet to undergo a quantitative analysis of the regionally differentiated ecological effects and trade-off relationships resulting from its implementation.This study integrates the FLUS-InVEST model to assess the Program’s effectiveness and ecological benefits in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.This study systematically reveals the inter-regional gradient differences and trade-offs in ecosystem service values across the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the basin, while also simulating the ecological benefits of the Program under various future scenarios.The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the total area converted under the Program across the entire region reached 144×105  km2, presenting a gradient decreasing pattern in the upper reaches (021×105  km2), middle reaches (012×105  km2), and lower reaches (004×105  km2).The urbanization process, to a certain extent, constrained the effectiveness of the Program implementation, resulting in a reduction of forest land area in the middle and lower reaches by 002×105  km2 and 001×105  km2, respectively, compared with the initial stage of the Program.(2) The Program led to both synergistic and trade-off relationships among inter-regional ecosystem services: carbon storage in the upper reaches increased by 376 million tons, and soil retention in the middle reaches rose by 624 million tons.However, the grain yield in the lower reaches (-31199 million tons) and the habitat quality index value (-025) both decreased significantly.(3) Scenario simulations indicated that under the ecology-priority scenario (2040), the total value of ecosystem services increased by 520% compared with that in 2020, which was superior to the natural development scenario (-131%) and the slope-oriented scenario (-3241%).The total values in the upper, middle, and lower reaches increased by 022, 002, and 001, respectively.In the future, efforts should be made to further consolidate the carbon sink advantages in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, strengthen soil and water conservation in the middle reaches, and restore grain production capacity in the lower reaches, so as to realize inter-regional complementary advantages and maximize the overall benefits
Key words：The Grain for Green Program; ecosystem services; land use scenario simulation; trade-offs and synergies; InVEST model

长江经济带生态脆弱性时空演变与情景模拟
骆康1，关财景1，刘耀彬2*，李汝资2，魏国恩3
（1海南大学国际商学院，海南 海口 570228；2南昌大学经济管理学院，江西 南昌 330031；3南昌大学资源与环境学院，江西 南昌 330031）
摘要：生态脆弱性的多尺度评估与情景分析，对于了解区域生态环境动态变化与系统综合治理极为重要。基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）分析框架，并在熵权法（EWM）上连接有序加权平均（OWA）构建长江经济带生态脆弱性综合评价指标体系与测度模型，进而运用核密度估计、莫兰指数以及自然断点法等探索性空间数据分析方法从多尺度视角探究其生态脆弱性的时空演变特征，以及设置多情景预测未来变化趋势。结果表明，（1）长江经济带整体层面生态脆弱性呈现显著的正向相关性，局部存在“高-高”和“低-低”集聚特性，且西部地区最高、中部地区次之、东部地区最低，生态脆弱性高值区主要集中在云贵川渝地区，特别是重庆、昆明、曲靖、昭通等城市；（2）“生态保护型”决策下情景模式更加契合当前长江经济带“不搞大开发、共抓大保护”的可持续发展要求。
关键词： 生态脆弱性；时空演变；情景模拟；多尺度；长江经济带
中图分类号： X171文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0417-11
DOI：1011870/cjlyzyyhj202602011

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Ecological Vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
LUO Kang1, GUAN Cai-jing1, LIU Yao-bin2, LI Ru-zi2, WEI Guo-en3
(1.International Business School, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; 2.School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; 3.School of Resources and Environment, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China)
Abstract：Multi-scale assessment and scenario analysis of ecological vulnerability are of great significance for understanding the dynamic changes of regional ecological environment and systematic comprehensive governance.Based on the Stress-state-response (PSR) analysis framework, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system and a measurement model of ecological vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by connecting ordered weighted average (OWA) on the entropy weight method (EWM).Furthermore, exploratory spatial data analysis methods such as kernel density estimation, Moran index, and natural break point method were employed to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of its ecological vulnerability from multiple perspectives.Multiple scenarios were set up to predict the changing trends in the future.The results showed that: (1) at the overall level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, ecological vulnerability presented a significant positive correlation.Locally, there existed agglomeration characteristics of "high-high" and "low-low".The western region demonstrated the highest value, followed by the central region, and the lowest in the eastern region.The high-value areas of ecological vulnerability were mainly concentrated in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan-Chongqing region, especially in cities such as Chongqing, Kunming, Qujing, and Zhaotong.(2) Under the "ecological protection type" decision-making, the scenario model was shown in better line with the current sustainable development requirements of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, which was "not engaging in large-scale development, but jointly focusing on large-scale protection"
Key words：ecological vulnerability; spatial-temporal evolution; scenario simulation; multi-scale; Yangtze River Economic Belt


长江经济带新型城镇化对水生态韧性的影响——基于引入改进的双重机器学习的DID研究
吕连菊1,2 ，阚大学1,2 
（1江西水利电力大学经济贸易学院，江西 南昌 330099；2江西水利电力大学水经济与管理研究中心，江西 南昌 330099）
摘要：在城镇化进程中提升水生态韧性对于实现人与自然和谐共生至关重要。采用1997~2023年城市面板数据，基于新型城镇化综合试点的准自然实验，将改进的双重机器学习方法引入双重差分法，就长江经济带新型城镇化对水生态韧性的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明，新型城镇化综合试点政策的估计系数为0072，在5%水平上显著，即新型城镇化综合试点政策有助于提高长江经济带试点城市水生态韧性，该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明，新型城镇化综合试点政策对试点城市水生态韧性的促进作用在长江经济带上游和中游地区、环境规制水平高地区和中等地区通过了显著性检验，在长江经济带低分位点的水生态韧性地区最为明显。中介机制检验发现，新型城镇化综合试点政策通过要素集聚、技术进步、人力资本、产业结构、市场化等促进了长江经济带试点城市水生态韧性提升。
关键词： 新型城镇化；水生态韧性；双重机器学习方法；准自然实验
中图分类号： X321；F0621 文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0428-12
DOI：1011870/cjlyzyyhj202602012

Impact of New Urbanization on Water Ecological Resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: A DID Study Based on Improved Double Machine Learning
LV Lian-ju 1,2,KAN Da-xue 1,2  
（1School of Economics and Trade, Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Nanchang 330099, China;
2Research Center of Water Economics and Management, Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Nanchang 330099, China）
Abstract：Enhancing water ecological resilience during the urbanization process is crucial for achieving harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.The urban panel data from 1997 to 2023 were used in this study.An improved double machine learning method was employed to conduct an empirical analysis on the impact of new urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) on water ecological resilience.The results showed that the estimated coefficient of the comprehensive pilot policy for new urbanization was 0072, which was significant at the 5% level.That implied that the comprehensive pilot program for new urbanization was conducive to improving the water ecological resilience of pilot cities along the YREB.This conclusion remained valid after a series of robustness tests.Heterogeneity analysis indicated that the positive effect of the comprehensive pilot program for new urbanization on the water ecological resilience of pilot cities passed the significance test in the upper and middle reaches of the YREB and in regions with high and medium levels of environmental regulation, and was most pronounced in regions with low water ecological resilience.The mediation mechanism test revealed that the comprehensive pilot program for new urbanization promoted the improvement of water ecological resilience of pilot cities along the YREB through the effects of factor agglomeration, technological progress, human capital, industrial structure, and marketization
Key words：new urbanization; water ecological resilience; double machine learning method; quasi-natural experiment

江苏省农业降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展的空间关联网络特征及演化机制
孙志贤1，郑欣悦2，陆一轩3，姚冠新1*
(1.扬州大学商学院，江苏 扬州 225009； 2.南京农业大学公共管理学院，江苏 南京 210095；3.扬州大学苏中发展研究院，江苏 扬州 225009)
摘要：协同推进农业降碳减污扩绿增长，是加快推动农业绿色转型与高质量协调发展的内在要求。综合运用修正耦合协调度模型、修正引力模型、社会网络分析和时间指数随机图模型，测度2006~2022年江苏省县域和地级市尺度下农业降碳减污扩绿增长的协同效应，考察双尺度下协同效应空间关联网络的结构特征及演化机制。结果表明：（1）研究期内，双尺度下江苏省农业降碳减污扩绿增长的协同效应均呈向好发展态势，但县级尺度下空间差异更为突出，中级协调以上的县域占比不足35%。（2）双尺度下协同效应空间关联网络的关联度始终为1，网络连通性较好，但网络密度稳定在020 ~ 031之间且呈现“先增后减”趋势，空间关联性仍有较大提升空间。（3）双尺度下协同效应空间关联网络呈现“核心－边缘”结构，盐城市在市级网络中扮演主导者角色，而县级尺度下盐城市辖区、射阳县和高邮市处于网络核心位置，并发挥中介作用。（4）互惠性、连通性和稳定性等内生驱动因素，以及农业规模化水平、农业科技化水平、趋同性和地理邻近性等外生驱动因素，对双尺度下协同效应空间关联网络的演化均有显著影响。研究可为江苏省推进农业降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展、加强区域间联动融合提供参考。
关键词： 农业；降碳减污扩绿增长；协同效应；空间关联网络；演化机制；江苏省
中图分类号： F323；X322 文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0440-15
DOI：1011870/cjlyzyyhj202602013

Characteristics of Spatial Correlation Network and Evolutionary Mechanism of Coordinated Development of Agricultural Carbon Reduction, Pollution Abatement, Green Expansion and Growth in Jiangsu Province
SUN Zhi-xian1，ZHENG Xin-yue2，LU Yi-xuan3，YAO Guan-xin1 
(1Business School, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China；
2College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China；
3.Research Institute of Central Jiangsu Development, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China)
Abstract：Collaboratively promoting agricultural carbon reduction, pollution abatement, green expansion, and growth is an inherent requirement for accelerating agricultural green transformation and high-quality coordinated development.This study employed the modified coupling coordination degree model, the modified gravity model, social network analysis, and temporal exponential random graph models to measure the synergistic effects of agricultural carbon reduction, pollution abatement, green expansion, and growth at both county and prefectural-level city scales in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2022.The structural characteristics and evolutionary mechanisms of spatial correlation networks under dual scales were further investigated.The findings revealed the following: (1) The synergistic effects of agricultural carbon reduction, pollution abatement, green expansion and growth at both scales exhibited a positive developmental trajectory, but the spatial differences were more prominent at the county scale, with less than 35% of counties achieving intermediate coordination or higher.(2) The correlation degree of the spatial correlation network of the synergistic effects remained at 1 for both scales, indicating strong network connectivity.Nevertheless, the network density stabilized between 020 and 031, exhibiting an initial rise followed by a decline, which suggested that there was still significant potential for improvement in spatial correlation.(3) The spatial correlation network of synergistic effects showed the core-periphery structure at both scales.Yancheng City emerged as a dominant player in the prefectural-level network, while Yancheng Municipal District, Sheyang County, and Gaoyou City held core positions within the county-level network, acting as critical intermediaries.(4) Endogenous driving factors such as reciprocity, connectivity, and stability, together with exogenous driving factors including agricultural scale level, agricultural technological advancement, convergence effects, and geographical proximity, all exerted significant impacts on the evolution of spatial correlation networks of synergistic effects at both scales.This research provided valuable insights for Jiangsu Province to promote the coordinated development of agricultural carbon reduction, pollution abatement, green expansion, and growth, and strengthen regional linkage and integration
Key words：agriculture；carbon reduction, pollution abatement, green expansion and growth；synergistic effects；spatial correlation network；evolutionary mechanism；Jiangsu Province

基于土地利用变化的皖江流域景观生态风险评价与模拟预测研究
王成，夏宇，苏强，彭涛，陈贺贺，孙公波，申志恒，王彬
（安徽农业大学经济管理学院，安徽 合肥 230036）
摘要：随着皖江流域加速融入长三角经济区，流域内经济社会发展对土地利用的影响不断加深，其对区域景观生态风险的影响也逐渐引起关注。以皖江流域作为研究区域，基于1990~2020年四期土地利用数据，运用景观格局指数建立的景观生态风险评价模型，开展皖江流域景观生态风险评价分析，利用PLUS模型，模拟流域2030年土地利用变化，分析不同土地利用情景下景观生态风险演变。研究结果表明：（1）研究区主要用地类型是耕地和林地，1990~2020年建设用地增加6654 km2，耕地、林地面积减少539、10504 km2。（2）研究区景观生态风险以低、较低风险为主，高生态风险区域面积呈上升趋势。（3）基于PLUS模型的模拟发现，在城市发展情景下建设用地面积增长最多，为3333 km2，耕地面积减少最多，为2483 km2。（4）城市发展情景下，低风险区面积占比减少近6415%，中风险区面积占比增加6052%；生态保护情景下，较低、中生态风险面积占比增加近4%。研究基于景观生态风险评价结果和多情景预测结果，可为皖江流域地区生态风险控制提供数据支持，为优化地区景观格局、促进社会经济可持续发展和生态文明建设提供重要参考。
关键词： 皖江流域；景观生态风险；PLUS模型；多情景模拟
中图分类号： X826 文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0455-14
DOI：1011870/cjlyzyyhj202602014

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Simulation Prediction in the Wanjiang River Basin based on Land Use Change
WANG Cheng，XIA Yu，SU Qiang，PENG Tao，CHEN He-he，SUN Gong-bo，SHEN Zhi-heng，WANG Bin
(School of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China)
Abstract：With the acceleration of the integration of the Wanjiang River Basin into the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, the impact of economic and social development on land use in the basin has been deepening, and its impact on the regional landscape ecological risk has gradually attracted attention.Therefore, this study selected the Wanjiang River Basin as the research scope, based on the land use data of the fourth period from 1990 to 2020, and used the landscape ecological risk assessment model established by the landscape pattern index to carry out the landscape ecological risk assessment analysis of the Wanjiang River Basin, and used the PLUS model to simulate the land use change in the basin in 2030 and analyze the evolution of landscape ecological risk under different land use scenarios.The results show that: (1) The main types of land use in the study area are cultivated land and forest land, and the construction land increased by 6654 km2 from 1990 to 2020, while the area of cultivated land and forest land decreased by 539 km2 and 10504 km2.(2) The landscape ecological risk in the study area was mainly low and low risk, and the area of high ecological risk area showed an upward trend.(3) Based on the PLUS model, the simulation results show that under the urban development scenario, the area of construction land increases the most, which is 3333 km2, and the area of cultivated land decreases the most, which is 2483 km2.(4) Under the urban development scenario, the proportion of low-risk areas decreased by nearly 6415%, and the proportion of medium-risk areas increased by 6052%.Under the ecological protection scenario, the proportion of low and medium ecological risk areas increased by nearly 4%.Based on the results of landscape ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario prediction, this study can provide useful information for ecological risk control in the Wanjiang River Basin, and provide a reference for optimizing the regional landscape pattern, promoting sustainable social and economic development and ecological civilization construction
Key words：Wanjiang River Basin；landscape ecological risk；PLUS model；multi-scenario simulation

基于多源数据的旅游目的地生态风险评价、驱动机制及优化策略——以三峡库区为例
李辉1,2,3，贾玉婷2,3，杨也2,3，孙浩强1，王福海2，周启刚2,3,4
（1西安交通大学管理学院，陕西 西安 710049；2重庆财经学院公共管理学院，重庆401320；
3生态环境数据挖掘与集成应用重庆市重点实验室，重庆401320；4重庆工商大学公共管理学院，重庆 400067）
摘要：三峡库区作为兼具世界级水利工程景观与丰富自然人文资源的典型旅游目的地，其特殊的地理区位与巨型水库运行引发的生态环境效应始终是国际关注的焦点。旨在揭示三峡库区这一重要旅游目的地的生态风险时空演变规律及其驱动机制，为区域生态安全提供科学支撑。基于2000~2020年多源数据，集成Landsat遥感影像、人类活动（人口密度、夜间灯光指数等）与气候要素（年均温、降水等），构建“格局-过程-机制-策略”分析框架，采用生态风险指数核算模型、空间自相关和地理探测器等方法，系统解析生态风险时空特征。结果表明：（1）土地利用显著转型，建设用地扩张1 76913  km2，形成沿长江干流蔓延的城镇化廊道，导致生态用地净减少236%；（2）生态风险呈“两翼扩散、轴向延伸”格局，空间集聚性减弱，风险等级整体向低风险转移，低风险区显著扩展，高风险区比例由2003%降至1937%，分布趋于均衡；（3）驱动分析显示，人类活动因子解释力（q=068）是自然因子（q=023）的295倍，夜间灯光指数与建设用地占比为主要驱动力。研究旨在为旅游目的地型大型水利工程影响区的生态风险防控与可持续发展提供方法支持与优化策略依据。
关键词： 生态风险；时空分异；驱动机制；优化策略；三峡库区
中图分类号： X144文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-0469-16
DOI：1011870/cjlyzyyhj202602015

Multi-Source Data-Based Ecological Risk Assessment, Driving Mechanism, and Optimization Strategies: A Case Study of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area
LI Hui1,2,3,JIA Yu-tin2,3 ,YANG Ye2,3,SUN Hao-qiang1,WANG Fu-hai2,ZHOU Qi-gang2,3,4
(1School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China;
2School of Public Administration,Chongqing Finance and Economics College,Chongqing 401320,China;
3Chongqing Key Laboratory of Ecological Environment Data Mining and Integrated Application, Chongqing 401320, China;
4School of Public Administration,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067, China)
Abstract：As a typical tourist destination featuring both a world-class water conservancy project and abundant natural and cultural resources, the Three Gorges Reservoir Region has long attracted international attention due to its unique geographical location and the ecological and environmental effects induced by the operation of the mega-reservoir.This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of ecological risks in this important tourist destination, providing scientific support for regional ecological security.Using multi-source data—including Landsat imagery, human activity indicators (eg, population density, nighttime lights), and climate variables (eg, temperature, precipitation)—we developed a "pattern-process-mechanism-strategy" framework.Methods such as ecological risk assessment, spatial autocorrelation, standard deviational ellipse, and GeoDetector analysis were integrated to examine risk dynamics.Results show that: (1) land use underwent rapid transformation, with built-up areas expanding by 1,76913  km2 along the Yangtze River corridor, leading to a 236% net loss of ecological land; (2) ecological risk shifted from localized clustering to a more dispersed pattern, characterized by “diffusion at both ends and extension along the axis” Overall, risk levels declined, with high-risk areas decreasing from 2003% to 1937%, while low-risk zones expanded significantly; (3) human activities exerted nearly three times greater influence than natural factors, with nighttime light intensity and built-up land proportion being the dominant drivers.Based on spatial heterogeneity, a three-tiered management strategy is proposed for risk mitigation.The study aims to provide methodological support and a basis for optimization strategies for ecological risk prevention and control, as well as sustainable development, in large water conservancy project-affected areas that are also major tourist destinations
Key words：ecological risk; spatio-temporal differentiation; driving mechanism;optimization strategies; Three Gorges Reservoir Area

赤水河水体重金属时空分布特征及污染评价
滕赵林1,2，赵梦飞2，李学华3，涂永康1,2，刘方圆1，刘飞2，程凯1，葛红梅1*
(1.湖北工业大学, 河湖健康智慧感知与生态修复教育部重点实验室, 湖北 武汉 430068； 2.中国科学院水生生物研究所, 湖北 武汉 430072; 3.长江上游珍稀特有鱼类国家级自然保护区云南管护局, 云南 昭通 657000)
摘要：为了解赤水河水体重金属污染状况，于2023年8月（丰水期）和2024年4月（平水期）对赤水河干流及主要支流31个断面的水样进行了采集，根据Cr、Mn、Fe、Cu、Zn、As、Cd、Pb和Hg 这9种重金属的测定值对赤水河重金属浓度的时空变化特征等进行了分析。结果表明：赤水河丰水期和平水期不同江段Cr、Mn、Fe、Cu、Zn、As、Cd和Pb这8种重金属的浓度均远低于《地表水环境质量标准》（GB 3838-2002）Ⅰ类标准以及补充标准限值，而不同断面Hg的浓度均超过Ⅲ类标准。赤水河流域重金属的浓度时空变化差异显著。从时间分布来看，丰水期整个流域、源头、上游江段和中游江段大部分重金属浓度高于平水期（P＜005）。从空间分布来看，丰水期大多数重金属（Cr、Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb、Hg和Mn）和平水期的重金属（Zn、Cd、Pb和Hg）浓度最大值主要集中在流域中游。同一水文时期各江段不同样的大多数重金属（Fe、Cu、Zn、As、Cd、Pb和Hg）浓度无明显差异（P＞005）。内梅罗综合污染指数（Nemero Composite Pollution Index，PN）评价显示，丰水期PN值在7963~27301之间，属于重度污染水平；平水期PN值在1598~21273之间，属于轻度~重度污染水平。整个流域丰水期的PN值显著高于平水期（P＜005）。PN的最大值在丰水期和平水期分别出现在葫市镇断面和大同镇断面。研究结果可以为赤水河水环境管理和污染控制提供科学依据。
关键词： 赤水河；重金属；时空分布；污染特征
中图分类号： X522文献标识码： A文章编号：1004-8227（2026）02-485-12
DOI：1011870/cjlyzyyhj202602016

Spatio-temporal Distribution and Pollution Evaluation in Chishui River
TENG Zhao-lin1 ,2 , ZHAO Meng-fei2 , LI Xue-hua3 , TU Yong-kang1 ,2 , LIU Fang-yuan1 , LIU Fei2 ,CHENG Kai1 , GE Hong-mei1
(1.Key Laboratory of Intelligent Health Perception and Ecological Restoration of Rivers and Lakes, Ministry of Education, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China; 2.Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430072, China; 3.Yunnan Management and Conservation Bureau of the Upper Yangtze River Rare and Endemic Fish National Nature Reserve, Zhaotong 657000, China)
Abstract： In order to understand the heavy metal pollution status of Chishui River, water samples were collected from 31 sections of the main stream and major tributaries in August 2023 (wet season) and April 2024 (normal season).The spatiotemporal distribution of the heavy metals were analyzed based on measured values of nine heavy metals, namely, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Pb and Hg.The results showed that the concentrations of Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb, in different sections of Chishui River during both the wet season and normal season were significantly lower than the Class I standard of the Environmental Quality Standard for Surface Waters (GB 3838-2002) as well as the limits of the supplementary standard.However, the concentrations of Hg in each section exceeded the Class III standard.The spatial and temporal variations of heavy metal concentrations showed significant differences.Temporally, most heavy metal concentrations in the entire basin, source, upstream and midstream of the river during the wet season were higher than those in the normal season (P < 005).Spatially, the maximum concentrations of most heavy metals in the wet season (Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Hg, and Mn) and in the normal season (Zn, Cd, Pb, and Hg) were primarily concentrated in the middle reaches of the watershed.There were no significant differences (P > 005) in the concentrations of most heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Pb, and Hg) among different river sections during the same season.The evaluation of Nemero Composite Pollution Index (PN) showed that the PN values ranged from 7963 to 27301 during the wet season, indicating that each section was at a severe pollution level.During the normal water season, the PN ranged from 1598 to 21273, indicating that different sections were at the levels of mild to severe pollution.The PN values of the entire basin during the wet season were significantly higher than those in the normal season (P < 005).The maximum value of PN was observed at the section of Hushi Town during the wet season and at Datong Town during normal season.The results of this study provided scientific basis for the water environment management and pollution control of Chishui River.