RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (2): 455-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202602014

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Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Simulation Prediction in the Wanjiang River Basin based on Land Use Change

WANG Cheng,XIA Yu,SU Qiang,PENG Tao,CHEN He-he,SUN Gong-bo,SHEN Zhi-heng,WANG Bin   

  1. (School of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China)
  • Online:2026-02-20 Published:2026-02-26

Abstract: With the acceleration of the integration of the Wanjiang River Basin into the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, the impact of economic and social development on land use in the basin has been deepening, and its impact on the regional landscape ecological risk has gradually attracted attention.Therefore, this study selected the Wanjiang River Basin as the research scope, based on the land use data of the fourth period from 1990 to 2020, and used the landscape ecological risk assessment model established by the landscape pattern index to carry out the landscape ecological risk assessment analysis of the Wanjiang River Basin, and used the PLUS model to simulate the land use change in the basin in 2030 and analyze the evolution of landscape ecological risk under different land use scenarios.The results show that: (1) The main types of land use in the study area are cultivated land and forest land, and the construction land increased by 665.4 km2 from 1990 to 2020, while the area of cultivated land and forest land decreased by 539 km2 and 105.04 km2.(2) The landscape ecological risk in the study area was mainly low and low risk, and the area of high ecological risk area showed an upward trend.(3) Based on the PLUS model, the simulation results show that under the urban development scenario, the area of construction land increases the most, which is 333.3 km2, and the area of cultivated land decreases the most, which is 248.3 km2.(4) Under the urban development scenario, the proportion of low-risk areas decreased by nearly 64.15%, and the proportion of medium-risk areas increased by 60.52%.Under the ecological protection scenario, the proportion of low and medium ecological risk areas increased by nearly 4%.Based on the results of landscape ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario prediction, this study can provide useful information for ecological risk control in the Wanjiang River Basin, and provide a reference for optimizing the regional landscape pattern, promoting sustainable social and economic development and ecological civilization construction.

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