Abstract: Using multilinear regression analysis, the authors examined the relationship quantitatively between the change of water environmental and economy development during the period from 1990 to 2000 in Taihu Basin was examined, and based on the information the authors predicted the water pollution status in the lake for the next 30 years. Combined with other studies, the authors considered that the source of contamination in Taihu Basin would possibly change in the future. The proportion of sewage from agriculture and industry would increase continually, being the primary pollution source. Therefore, in order to ameliorate the water environment of Taihu Lake, the management to nonpoint pollution from agriculture must be intensified, except for the enforcement of some minimum requirement about pointpollution discharge from industry.

Key words: Taihu Basin, water environmental change, economy development