RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2011, Vol. 20 >> Issue (05): 628-.

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A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON DIFFERENTIAL CHANGES AND DRIVING FORCES OF ARABLE LAND——A CASE STUDY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

WEN Jiqun1, PU Lijie1,2, ZHANG Runsen1   

  1. (1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China|2. Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resource, Beijing 100035,China)
  • Online:2011-05-20

Abstract:

Based on the data of arable land in 13 municipal cities in Jiangsu Province from 1998 to 2008,this paper analyzed the change process of arable land and spatial difference nearly 10 years,test the spatial autocorrelation of arable land by the Moran I index,and studied the driving mechanism in the change of arable land by adopting spatial econometric model.From 1998 to 2008,the area of arable land decreased 2969 × 104 hm2 with yearly decrease of 270 × 104 hm2.There was an obvious spatial difference in the change of arable land.The most serious regions of the reduction of arable land included Wuxi,Suzhou,Changzhou,Nanjing and Zhenjiang city.There existed an obvious spatial correlation of the distribution of arable land in Jiangsu Province.Its value of Moran I increased from 04003 to 04524 from 1998 to 2008,and this correlation was growing stronger.The population,economic growth and the ratio of grain and economic crops were the main driving factors and their elastic coefficients were -0803, -0070 and 0069,respectively.There was an obvious significant spatial diffusion effect in the change of arable land in various factors in adjacent areas,and the elastic coefficient was 0779.Therefore,we should take the spatial correlation into consideration in the future to promote the formation of transregional arable land protection mechanism,and establish an integrative regional protection policy

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