Abstract:

Current water resource management is facing more dynamic and complex difficulties caused by climate change and the rapid development.Adaptive management is considered as a new approach to successful water resources management.Facing increasing uncertainty,vulnerability assessment is an important initial process of adaptive management.This paper studied the vulnerability of water resources adaptive system，a societyeconomicsecology compound system,from the perspective of systems science,in order to find possible adaptive measures.Firstly,this paper defined water resources adaptive system,and explaind the definition of its vulnerability.Then a PressureStateResponse model (PSR model) was introduced for vulnerability analysis.Base on the PSR model,this article designed a vulnerability assessment index system of water resources adaptive system,which included pressure,sensibility and adaptability dimensions.At last based on entropy method and set pair analysis,we evaluated vulnerability of the Poyang Lake Basin by using data from 2001 to 2010.It indicated that vulnerability change trend was influenced by the change of pressure,sensibility and adaptability.During 10 years,vulnerability of the Poyang Lake Basin experienced a first increasing then slowly declining trend,and overall vulnerability index was below the medium level.Pressure index of water resources adaptive system fluctuated in decades,and mainly kept at a medium level in the Poyang Lake Basin.Major system pressures were caused by precipitation change,nature disasters,large amounts of energy consummation and pollution resulted from rapid economic development.As an important agriculture region of China,the Poyang Lake Basin had a large agricultural population;economic and social were sensitive to climate changes in accord with the sensibility index trend.Since 2001,adaptability had improved greatly,attributed to the economic development,scientific and technological advance,environment protection and ecological management.During the decades the increase of pressure and sensibility had a negative influence of system vulnerability.Fortunately,the amelioration of adaptability had a significant effect on reducing vulnerability of water resources adaptive system to climate changes and social changes.According to predicts,in the future with the rising temperature in the Poyang Lake River Basin,the ecological environment probably has the trend of degradation,agricultural production will be affected.At the same time,with economic development,the pressure from increasing energy consumption and water resources demand will further exacerbate the vulnerability of water resources adaptive system.Since the significant position of the Poyang Lake Basin to national ecological security strategy,adaptive measures should be take to ameliorate development mode and environment,improve the ability to respond to climate change and the capacity for sustainable development.To reduce the system vulnerability,four types adaptive measures could be adopted to increase adaptability.Those adaptive measures include ameliorating water conservancy facilities and urban infrastructure,improving emergency response capability,adjusting economic development model,improving resources efficiency, enforcing propaganda of environmental protection,controlling soil erosion and pollution emission,increasing environmental protection budget,etc.〖HJ1〗〖HJ〗