Abstract:

Greenhouse gas emission has been one of the most important environmental issues in the world. After the Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005, every Annex I country was required to submit an annual report of inventories of GHG emissions. The GHG emission inventories serve not only as a check of the current status of emission levels but also as a mechanism to monitor progresses toward agreed national emission reduction targets. Reliable emission inventory will provide policymakers with critical information to develop smart strategies and policies for climate change and enable the general public to better understand the sources and trends of GHG emissions. In 2008, the transport sector accounted for 23% of the world greenhouse gas emissions from energy,  but it represented the highest growth in emissions of all sectors. Increasingly serious global warming caused by the greenhouse effect has become an important constraint of the global sustainable economic and social development, which caused worldwide attention. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels, making the growing greenhouse effect leading to global warming. Total oil consumption of transport sector accounted for 50% of the current global oil consumption, and 25% of the total CO2 emissions. The transport sector depended too much on oil and energy, and was the major important contribution rate of greenhouse gas emissions. Exploring the impact of transportation energy consumption and related carbon emission factors and changes in the contribution rate, for the realization of lowcarbon transport has great significance. By topdown calculation method, transport sector carbon emissions and per capita carbon emission from 1995 to 2010 in Jiangsu Province were calculated and analysed using LMDI decomposition method, combined with the industry own development characteristics and extended Kaya identity. Meanwhile, decoupling relationships between carbon emissions and economic development in Jiangsu Province were analysed using Tapio model . The Results showed as follows. (1) Transport emissions and per capita carbon emission of Jiangsu Province showed a clear upward trend, in which carbon emissions of petroleum products energy consumption performed noticeably. (2) The forward driving factors of transport emissions to increase were economic output, population size and industrial structure, and the negative driving factors were the structure and intensity of transportation energy. Among them, the decisive factor of stimulating the growth of carbon emissions was the expansion of economic output, while the major factor of reducing carbon emissions was reduced transportation energy intensity, and the inhibiting effect on the increase of transport emissions of negative factors was limited compared to forward driving factors. (3) The expansion negative connection, the expansion negative decoupling and weak decoupling were the main decoupling states between transport emission change and transportation industry economic development, and the decoupling relationships tended to be deteriorative first, then ameliorative, but it would go a long way toward fully realizing absolute decoupling