Abstract: Studying the driving factors that cause the change of cultivated land will help solve the current contradiction between population, economic and social development and cultivated land resources. We proposed to improve the static model of driving forces in cultivated land change based on time series, and predicted the change of cultivated land in Changshou District with the dynamic simulation using the system dynamics model. This article provides references for the rational utilization and protection of cultivated land resources in rapid urbanization.The results showed that: (1)the total area of cultivated land in Changshou District decreased by 9535hm2 over the 25 years, showing an overall downward trend in fluctuation; (2)the main driving forces of cultivated land change were closely related to social and economic development, population and urban development, adjustment of agricultural structure and progress of science and technology; (3)by using SD model to simulate different scenarios, it was found that the rate of urbanization in Changshou district has the greatest impact on cultivated land area, followed by the impact of GDP on cultivated land area, while the impact of population growth on cultivated land area is the smallest; (4)the change of cultivated land varied greatly under different social and economic development modes, and the mode of rapid growth of GDP and urbanization rate is the most ideal mode of development, which will promote the protection of cultivated land resources in the region. In conclusion, in order to alleviate the pressure of cultivated land protection in the future, we must change the mode of economic development at the expense of cultivated land, coordinate the conflict between cultivated land protection and the rapid development of urbanization and cultivated land through intensive and economical use of land, actively carring out reclamation of rural construction land.
Key words：cultivated land change; driving forces; farmland conversion; system dynamics; urbanization;Three Gorges Reservoir area