Abstract: Capitals flowing to the countryside and involving in the farmland tranafer could facilitate the harmonious development of people, lands and capitals in rural areas; but it also might incur a series of complex problems and risks, which becomes a dilemma in the transitional period of economical and social development in rural areas. This essay, by employing methods of induction and deduction, and risk systematic anaysis, has analyzed the farmland transfer risks and their causes in the process of capitals flowing to the countryside. The research shows that the farmland transfer risks rising in such a process can be categorized into three types: risk in land rights and interests, risk in social security, and risk in land utilization; the risk recipients are peasants, social economical subsystems, and land eco-subsystems. The risk sources are different in different stages in the transfer process: in the agreement stage the sources include vague boundary of property rights, fuzzy policy and regulation, information asymmetry, unreasoable incentive policies, low ability of policy implemeters, and lack of access mechanism; risk sources in the executing stage are lack of supervisory mechanism and defective supporting facilities. Through polyreaction, all these risk sources may release adversity-stresses such as “Public domain of property right”, “behavior space”, “conspiracy”, “choice behavior”, and “negative externality” which affect risk recipients and incur various transfer risks. Thus, risks in the process of farmland transfer could be effectively managed if diverse methods are employed to prevent property rights from entering the public territory, to reduce the powerful group’s behavior space, to avoid the conspiracy between power and capitals, to be precautionary about the interest group’s choice behavior, and to minimize the negative externality in transfer. The research results will provide reference to the actions of making an orderly farmland transfer, protecting peasants’ rights and interests, as well as motivating the social economical transition in rural areas.
Key words：capital to the countryside; farmland circulation risk; risk management