RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2018, Vol. 27 >> Issue (12): 2856-2866.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201812022

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Analysis of Urban Flood Disaster Risk in the Poyang Lake Basin and Land Type Adjustment Strategy Study  —— A Case Study of Jingdezhen City

SUN Dian-chen1,2,WANG Hui-min1,2,HUANG Jing1,2,LIU Gao-feng1,3   

  1. (1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Management Science Institute of Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 3. School of Business Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China)
  • Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-29

Abstract: Due to the influence of global climate change and severe human activities, the frequency and intensity of urban flood disasters in basin are increasing frequently. Because of various urban development of cities in the Poyanghu Basin, the land use structure was forced to change. Because of the rapid urban development in Poyanghu Basin, the land use structure changes continuously. Meanwhile, some unreasonable land use type increased the risk of flood disaster. It’s significant and necessary to study and reveal the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk in the different basin. The study can be used as a support tool to help local stakeholders make future flood risk prevention and reduction planning, and flood disaster management. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City in Poyanghu Basin was selected as the study area. Firstly, the formation of flood risk and the causes of flood disasters in cities of basin were analyzed. Secondly, based on the formation process of urban flood risk in Basin, the assessment index was set up from four main aspects (disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability). Thirdly, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model was developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS). Finally, taking the urban area of Jingdezhen as a case, the spatial risk was calculated quantitatively. And the adjustment strategies of land use type in the typical flood disaster affected areas were put forward according to the spatial-temporal distribution of flood disaster risk. The results showed that there was a big difference between the maximum and minimum values of flood disaster risk in urban areas from the perspective of space. The risk decreased gradually from the center line of Urban River to the surrounding. The range of risk volatility in different regions was different. The Changjiang coastal area of Zhushan District which has high social and economic development level were the high-risk areas and the risk level was low in western, southwest and eastern towns. From the perspective of time, the maximum value of flood disaster risk in the urban city decreased from 2010 to 2013 while the local areas of high flood disaster risk were more concentred. The risk of flood disaster in the South became smaller as a whole. The value of flood disaster risk in the western part of the city increased slightly. According to the different regional characteristics, two hypothetical adjustments were adopted to change the land use types in the typical flood areas in the basin. After calculating the average value of flood disaster risk, the value of flood disaster risk in two regions decreased from 0.606 and 0.610 to 0.561 (7.4%)and 0.571(6.4%) respectively.

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