RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (05): 1102-1110.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201905010

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Dynamic Response of Grain Production and Cultivated Land Quantity Change in Jiangsu Province Based on Sensitivity Analysis

TAN Yan-fei1,2,PU Li-jie1,2, XIE Xue-feng3,ZHU Ming1,2,HUANG Si-hua1,2   

  1. (1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;2. The Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China; 3. College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China)
  • Online:2019-05-20 Published:2019-05-22

Abstract: Jiangsu Province is considered as an important grain production base in China. The change of cultivated land not only affects the sustainable development of region, but also relates to the food security of China. In this paper, 55 counties in Jiangsu Province were selected as study unit, and the mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis were conducted to analyze the spatialtemporal variations of cultivated land and grain production, and the sensitivity of grain production to cultivated land change during 2000-2015. The results indicated that the cultivated land in Jiangsu Province showed a decreasing trend, in which the relatively sparse areas were mainly distributed in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou, while the agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in northern Jiangsu. The spatial pattern of grain production was consistent with the distribution of cultivated land, and the grain yield showed an increasing trend. In 2015, the grain yield in Jiangsu Province reached 3561×104 tons, which was 1.15 times of that of 2000. In addition, the moving direction of gravity center of cultivated land and grain production are roughly same, and both of them move to northward and westward. Compared with 2000-2009, the sensitivity of grain production to cultivated land change in Jiangsu Province was gradually weakened during 2009-2015. With the development of agricultural technology, the dependence of grain production on cultivated land has gradually decreased. It is urgent to protect cultivated land, ensure food security in accordance with local conditions, and rationally allocate grain production for different sensitive areas.

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