RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (11): 2743-2752.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201911021

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Variation of Precipitation in Hanjiang River Basin in the Period of 1961-2049

WANG Run 1,2, ZHANG Qi-mou1,2, LI Na 1, JIANG Tong3,4   

  1. (1. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China;2. Water Resource Management & Policy Research Center, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China;3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 10081, China;4. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Online:2019-11-20 Published:2019-11-29

Abstract: From two aspects the research in this paper focuses on the changes of precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin. On the one hand a literature review about the historical changes in the period of 1961-2011 compares the previous research results; on the other hand using five global climate models(GCMs) from CMIP5, the trend of precipitation in 1961-2049 is projected. The literature review shows the result that there is not clear trend in the precipitation change in the Hanjiang River Basin in the historical period of 1961-2011. While some literatures showed a 17-year-period and a 30-year-period in the time series in their work. Furthermore, the GCMs in this area verify the conclusions from the literature review. There are not obvious upward or downward trend of precipitation in the period of 1961-2049 in the basin, but relatively clear a 17-year-period and a 30-year-period under the scenario of RCP4.5. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios the precipitation periods have changed in the times series. Under RCP2.6 the period can be found as 5 a and 11 a, while under RCP8.5 as 8 a and 17 a. In conclusion, the results from the GCMs analysis are basically in accordance with those in literature review. There are no significant trend in precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin in the past 50 years and also in the next 30 years.

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