RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (12): 2542-2557.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202312008

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Multi-scenario Simulation of Temporal-spatial Evolution of Land Uses and Ecosystem Services in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

HUANG Zhen-bin,LI Hong-bo   

  1. (College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agriculture University,Wuhan 430070,China)
  • Online:2023-12-20 Published:2023-12-25

Abstract: Investigation on the characteristics and regulations of changes of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Wuhan urban agglomeration under multiple scenarios is of significant for regional land use planning and ecosystem conservation. Based on the land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, we revealed the temporal-spatial evolution trends of land use and ESV in Wuhan urban agglomeration; We simulated the land use in Wuhan urban agglomeration under four scenarios of tendency inheritance,cultivated land preservation, ecological conservation, and balanced cultivated land and ecological using CA-Markov model, and analyzed the structural change trends and spatial flow characteristics of ESV. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, land use changes in the Wuhan urban agglomeration presented significant phase characteristics, which generally showed a substantial transfer of cultivated land to construction land and water, resulting in a sharp loss of 1 868 km2 of cultivated land,while forest land and water area had a relatively significant shift to construction land, leading to a continuous expansion of 1 569.93 km2 of construction land. The ESV showed a decreasing trend of 1.66%. Fluctuations of ESV in the urban area of Wuhan, Xiantao and Qianjiang were obvious. (2) Tendency inheritance and cultivated land conservation scenarios had elevated ESV losses of 117 million yuan and 81 million yuan respectively, which were primarily influenced by the decreased forest land and water areas; the ecological preservation scenario followed, and the reduction of cultivated land played a prominent role in the reduction of ESV; the cultivated land and ecological balance scenario caused the expansion of water areas and forest land, contributing to the radiating increase of ESV centered in Wuhan City. (3) The magnitude of variation in ESV spatial mobility was relatively moderate, displaying an overall inflow from the surrounding higher ESV cities in the eastern and southern regions to the regional center. The dominating ESV outflow cities were QiChun County, Luotian County and Chibi.

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