Abstract: Revealing relationship of non-coordinated coupling between ecological carrying capacity and high-quality development is of great practical significance for promoting ecological security and human-land coordination.Based on the mechanism of non-coordinated coupling between ecological carrying capacity and high-quality development, we constructed an ecological carrying capacity assessment indicator system from three dimensions of ecological resilience, resource carrying, and environmental carrying. Additionally, we built a high-quality development assessment indicator system from five dimensions of innovation drive, coordination capability, green transformation, openness level, and shared development. The non-coordinated coupling model, exploratory spatial data analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and GM (1,1) model were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of non-coordinated coupling between ecological carrying capacity and high-quality development in the Dongting Lake area from 2004 to 2022. The trend of the changes from 2023 to 2028 was also predicted. The results showed that: (1)Non-coordinated coupling degree decreased from 0.532 3 to 0.363 1 in 2004-2022 and was predicted to be 0.309 2 in 2028. However, the coupling degree remained relatively high, and coupling and coordination were not synchronous.There existed significant spatial variations, i.e. the central region > peripheral region > edge region. (2)The non-coordinated coupling degree exhibited a significant negative global spatial autocorrelation. It was anticipated that in 2028, the coupling type would still be predominantly characterized by antagonistic non-coordinated coupling. The situation of non-coordinated coupling was expected to remain severe, with three types of spatial agglomeration, i.e. high-high, high-low, and low-high. (3)The directionality of the spatial distribution of non-coordinated coupling was dominated by the east-west direction, with the gravity center moving slowly towards the northwest of Dongting Lake. But the agglomeration and the location of the center of gravity were basically stable. (4) The edge region of Dongting Lake should be given full play to the driving and radiation roles while steadily reducing their own non-coordinated coupling.The central region should strengthen regional cooperation, give full play to the advantages of soil and water resources, and promote the concept of eco-agriculture.The peripheral region shoulddevelop special ecological industries according to the local conditions.