Abstract:

The recovery time of natural disaster has direct relation with indirect loss, and then influence the total loss caused by disaster. Therefore, the evaluation of indirect loss after disaster is the most important part of establishing the disaster mitigation policies.The InputOutput model is most widely used in disaster economic evaluation.Based on regional InputOutput model,economic situation and disaster policies of Hunan Province,this study simulated the economic recovery of Hunan Province after the flood disaster,and compared with the construction recovery data.Through calculation,the indirect economic loss of Hunan flood disaster was 17846 billion yuan,which was 39 percent of the direct economic losses.The results of recovery simulation in different departments were beneficial to make disaster reduction strategy, optimize the allocation of reconstruction and resources,minimize the impact on the economic system.Although the simulation results was still uncertain,the results indicated that the InputOutput model in simulation of disaster could play a very good role in simulating the indirect loss of disaster and estimating the recovery period