Abstract:

In this paper,we observed, simulated and projected precipitation pattern in the Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2050.Using daily precipitation data simulated by a highresolution regional climate model(CCLM),four typical precipitation indices,i.e.PRCPTOT,SDII,R20mm,and P95pTOT,are calculated.The results are compared with the observed data from 1961 to 2010 in terms of temporal trends and spatial distribution,to test the ability of CCLM to simulate precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin.The results show that CCLM can well simulate the interannual variation of precipitation and its spatial distribution. Among the four precipitation indices,PRCPTOT is simulated best.Based on the SRESA1B scenario,the CCLMprojections of precipitation are analyzed for the period of 2011-2050.The projected annual precipitation shows an increasing trend with a rise by 70 mm.The projected high interannual variability ranges within -40% to 60%.This indicates that extreme precipitation events might increase in the future.The spatial distribution of precipitation pattern in the southern and central basin shows a tendency to increase in the 40 years,by about 67%,while in the other areas a reduction of no more than 106% is apparent.Generally,the CCLM model can simulate the precipitation well,so the CCLMprojections of precipitation have a certain reference value on the local water resources management.