Abstract:

Based on multimode data in Phase 3 of WCRP′s Coupled Model Project and 63 meteorological stations in the upper Yangtze River,simulation capability of temperature and precipitation in the upper Yangtze basin was assessed.In the A2,A1B,B1 scenarios,the average temperature and precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin were projected for the next 50 years.The results showd that the global model could better reflect the basin temperature and precipitation trends in time and space,and the simulated surface temperature was generally lower than live value.The variation of average annual temperature were 1.7 ℃,2.1 ℃,1.3 ℃ in the three scenarios.The region showed a consistent warming trend in A1B,B1 scenarios,while a cooling trend in the Jialing River in A2 scenario.The increase of rainfall were 50.0 mm,83.5 mm,29.5 mm,and the spatial distribution of precipitation was uniform in A1B,B1 scenarios