Abstract:

With the population increasing and rapid urbanization development,the economy and urbanization process continued to accelerate in Taihu Lake Basin.The cropland resources were fast dwindling and the supply and demand conflict of food was intensifying,while the demand for food is increasing rapidly.Based on the analysis and forecasting of minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index model,the paper quantitatively analyzed the dynamic changes in cropland acreage and grain production respectively of Taihu Lake Basin.It was found that the population presented swift growth and cropland area kept on decreasing with the growth of GDP per capita since 1985. Simultaneously,the grain production showed instability and a tendency to decline.In general,the minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index were obvious temporalfluctuation between 1985 and 1997,but displayed an increasing trend from 1997 to 2003 and a reduction after 2003.The analysis of different regions reveals the reality that the cropland pressure was obvious in the whole study area.The minimum cropland acreage per capita would be a continuous decrease with increasing in the arable land productivity in the next 10 years.Because of the rapid reduction in the cropland acreage per capita,the cropland pressure index will increase significantly.Two selfsufficiency rate scenario shows that the decreasing of the food selfsufficiency rate to some extent can alleviate cropland pressure at the regional scale. However,there will be a supply gap of grain for eating in the further. In view of the results of analysis and prediction,countermeasures for reduction of cropland pressure and guarantee the balance of food supply were proposed