Abstract:

This study presents a detailed analysis of observed and simulated precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province using simulated output from the regional climate model COSMOCLM (CCLM) covering the period of 1961-2005 and projected output for years of 2006-2040 under RCP4.5 scenario. Three conclusions could be obtained in this research. Firstly, compared with observational records, CCLM appeared to have a good performance on simulation of mean temperature (T), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) with correlation coefficients of 0.58, 0.41, 0.61, temporally, and 0.95,0.93,0.95, spatially (significant at 0.05 level). However, CCLM failed to capture the characteristics and variation of precipitation in Yunnan Province. The bias between the simulated and observed series reached 311.77 mm and their correlation coefficient were -0.18 during 1961-2005. Secondly, T, Tmax, Tmin would show consistently increasing trend over Yunnan province with　increasing scope of about 1.2℃ during years of 2030-2040 compared with baseline period of 1986-2005 under RCP4.5 scenario. Thirdly, the possibility of warm events would increase slightly and cold events might reduce during the period of 2030-2040 in Yunnan Province