RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2018, Vol. 27 >> Issue (11): 2463-2471.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201811008

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Evaluation of Water environmental System Vulnerability in Jiangsu  Province Based on Weight-Varying Gray Cloud Model

ZHAO Yi1,  XU Xu-kan1, 2,  LI Xiao-juan1   

  1. （1.Hohai University Statistics and Data Science Institute,  Changzhou 213022, China；2.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of
     Data Engineering and Knowledge Service,  Nanjing 210023, China）
  • Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-12-14

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Abstract: Water environmental system vulnerability has gradually become a hot topic in water resource utilization and eco-environment,  by inherent mechanism study of water environmental system,  an evaluation index system based on DPSIRM model is established,  which comprehensively takes the influences including resources,  environment,  economy and society into consideration. On that basis,  weight-varying gray cloud model is put forward. The model is used to evaluate the water environmental system vulnerability of Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2014. In conclusion,  from 2004 to 2014,  the vulnerability index of the was increased rapidly,  rising from 47.056 to 63.210. In 2004,  the stayed at IV grade. After 2004,  the water environmental system vulnerability downgraded to Ⅲ grade level and remained at Ⅲ grade level,  and it shows an improvement trend. Then this paper analyzes the impact degree of each subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability,  the result shows that,  from 2004 to 2014,  the influence of impact subsystem and responses subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability is increasing. On the contrary,  the influence of pressure subsystem and management subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability presents a downward tendency. The influence of other subsystems on water environmental system vulnerability is maintained at a certain level with minor fluctuation.

Key words: water environmental system vulnerability, DPSIRM, weight-varying model, gray cloud model, Jiangsu province

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