RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (01): 144-156.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201901015

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Spatial Variability of Different Return Period of Rainfall Intensity and Variation Patterns of Heavy Rainfall in China from 1961 to 2016 Based on POT Sampling

KONG Feng1,2,3, FANG Jian4, SUN Shao5, WANG Pin6, LV Li-li2,3   


  1. (1.Center for Crisis Management Research, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 
    2. China Meteorological Administration Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3.Central Asia Atmospheric 
    Sciences Center, Urumqi 830002，China; 4. School of Resources and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; 
    5.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China; 6. Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, College of Science, 
    Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)
  • Online:2019-01-20 Published:2019-02-20

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Abstract: Rainfall intensity under different return periods has important scientific and practical significance for urban flood control and disaster mitigation. In this research, using the data of 535 daily rainfall stations in China for 1961-2016 years, using the threshold value of 90%, 95% and 99% quantiles of daily rainfall amounts, the spatial differentiation characteristics of rainfall intensity and the change mode of strong rainfall in different return periods of different POT are compared and analyzed. The results showed that: Firstly, the three thresholds of rainfall amounts above were characterized by spatial differentiation from east to west. Compared with the absolute threshold, the 95% and 99% quantile thresholds of daily rainfall amounts are relatively reasonable for heavy rainfall and storm rainfall. Secondly, the different return period of rainfall intensity in China under three kinds of POT was influenced by regional climate and terrain conditions, and its spatial evolution features are similar, all of which showed a tendency to expand from the east coast regions to the west and north regions, but the spatial pattern of rainfall intensity under the same return period was very different under the three POT methods. Thirdly, EOF analysis showed that the variation modes of strong rainfall in China under absolute threshold and relative threshold are consistent, the variance interpretation rate of the first three modes can reach more than 54%, and the explanatory rates of the variance of the first, second and three mode are more than 10%, reaching about 30%, 14% and 11% respectively, which all represent the different variation features of annual strong rainfall in China. It has obvious climatic and physical significance.

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