Abstract: Applying delphi approach, linear fitting prediction, kaya model and multi-factor spatial overlay analysis, this paper focus on measuring land development intensity and identifying restricting factors of construction land development in Jiangsu based on carrying capacity of resources and environment and suitability of development and construction. The results indicate:（1) Resources and environment factors have different restricting impact on construction land expansion in Jiangsu, and water resource carrying capacity precedes environment, while carbon emission lags behind former factors;（2) Unsuitable development area locates on lake, wetland and coastal zone in Jiangsu, while suitable development area is in the mode of aggregated distribution which covers Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou, Nanjing-Zhenjiang-Yangzhou-Yancheng and coastal area;（3) land development intensity of each municipality in Jiangsu presents regional, temporal and structural differences. Southern Jiangsu is mainly faced with restriction of environment and carbon emission, while median and northern Jiangsu area is restricted by water resource, environment and carbon emission alternately. Land development intensity prediction can provide theoretical and data base for making regional-different policies of land regulation and ecological protection.