RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (10): 2491-2503.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201910021

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Spatial Difference of Extreme High Temperature Intensity in China Under 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target

KONG Feng1,2,3   

  1. (1. School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Center for Crisis Management
     Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 3. China Meteofological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100081, China)
  • Online:2019-10-20 Published:2019-11-05

Abstract: Under the background of global warming, extreme high temperature and heat waves occur frequently, which has become one of the meteorological disasters seriously affecting human health and social sustainable development. Based on the daily maximum temperature and average temperature datasets of from 2020 to 2099 in climate engineering (G4 test) and non-climate engineering (RCP4.5) scenarios of BNU-ESM model, the extreme high temperature intensity regions difference characteristics in China during and after the implementation of climate engineering (2020-2069) are analyzed by Weibull extreme value distribution theory. The results show that: Firstly, the comparison between the two scenarios shows that climate engineering has not fundamentally changed the spatial variability of extreme high temperature intensity in different return periods in China. In both scenarios, the extreme high temperature intensity is characterized by the spatial differentiation of low in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and high in the East China and Northwest China. Secondly, the comparison between the two scenarios shows that climate engineering can help to mitigate the extreme high temperature intensity in different return periods in China, and the mitigation effect during the implementation period is significantly higher than that after the completion. Thirdly, the results of comparison between 2020-2069 and 2070-2099 under the climate engineering scenario show that there is no strong rebound of extreme high temperature after the implementation of climate engineering, and the mitigation effect of extreme high temperature intensity during the implementation of climate engineering is significantly higher than that after the completion. Fourthly, at the same time, comparing the changes of the average temperature in China during and after the implementation of climate engineering, the results show that the average temperature in China has been reduced by at least 1.25℃, which effectively alleviates global warming and is conducive to the realization of the Paris Accord temperature control target of 1.5℃. Under the current temperature control target of 1.5℃, the decrease of average temperature will help to reduce and mitigate the frequency and intensity of more extreme high temperature events, and deepen the understanding of the impact of climate engineering on extreme high temperature events.

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