RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (8): 1757-1767.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202008008

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 Long-term Variation of Regional Extreme Precipitation in Jiangnan Area and Its Possible Cause

CHEN Xiao-hong 1, ZHANG Xin-zhu 1, ZHANG Xin-ping 1,2, LONG Xi-yu 1   

  1. (1.College of Resources and Environmental Science,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081, China;2. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application,Changsha 410081,China)
  • Online:2020-08-20 Published:2020-09-21

Abstract: In this paper, the daily precipitation dataset of grid points(0.5°×0.5°) of version 2 during 1961??2018 from China Meteorological Administration, daily reanalysis dataset from NCEP/NCAR and the tropical cyclone (TC) database that’s from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI), were used to analyze long-term variation of the regional extreme precipitation and its possible cause in Jiangnan Area. The regional extreme precipitation events were determined by the percentile threshold method and classified according to their weather systems. Then, the linear trend analysis, M-K mutation test and Spearman correlation analysis methods were used for the analysis of the long-term variation of regional extreme precipitation events. The results are as follows: (1) There were 790 regional extreme precipitation events in Jiangnan Area from 1961 to 2018, including 436 frontal extreme precipitation events, 135 cyclonic extreme precipitation events and 219 other types of extreme precipitation events. (2) Frontal and cyclonic extreme precipitation events both show an upward trend, and the precipitation days and precipitation amount of them significantly increased. The intensity of all types of extreme precipitation events all had been an upward trend. However, the precipitation days and precipitation amount of other types of regional extreme precipitation events show an downward trend. The upward trend of precipitation days and precipitation amount of regional extreme precipitation events started later than those of frontal type,but the extreme precipitation days of them changed suddenly around in the 1990s, and the extreme precipitation amount of regional and cyclonic changed suddenly around in the 1980s. (3) The variation of regional extreme precipitation events may be caused by the variation of frontal and cyclonic extreme precipitation events, while the local meridional circulation and the number of tropic cyclone appearing in the Jiangnan Area are the possible reasons for the long-term variation of frontal and cyclonic extreme precipitation events respectively.

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