Abstract:

Evaluation of the resources and environment bearing capacity is an important part of the national restoration and reconstruction planning after Wenchuan earthquake.It aims for putting forward the population quantity suitable for the resources and environment bearing capacity.This paper proposes an evaluating method based on three key factors：water resources，cultivated land resources and environmental capacity.The evaluating method has been applied to calculate the population bearing capacity of resources and environment of Ya’an city which was heavily damaged by the earthquake.According to “cask effect”，the population bearing capacity based on cultivated land resources has been selected to reflect the resources and environment bearing capacity.Population bearing capacity have been analyzed from cultivated landgrain resources and income from cultivated land economy to determine the proper population scale synthetically.It is concluded that the population bearing capacity based on resources and environment before 2010 is 1535~159 million，and it’s not necessary to transfer population in large scale.For meeting welloff standard in 2020，it is 1585~164 million.Totally the resources and environment can meet postearthquake population demand for welloff society，but it needs to take comprehensive policies to lead the population to migrate to Yucheng and Mingshan County which have more capacity potential，strong industry and population concentration abilities 〖WTHZ