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Table of Content
20 May 2010, Volume 19 Issue 05
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  • Contents
    OPTIMIZED ALLOCATION OF THE GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION FOR POPULATION——A CASE STUDY OF TAIZHOU CITY
    TIAN Fang, DUAN XuE-Jun, JIN Zhi-Feng
    2010, (05):  473. 
    Abstract ( 1894 )   PDF (531KB) ( 394 )   Save
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    The optimized allocation of population distribution should not only consider the needs of ecological protection,disaster avoidances and environmental quality,but also should pay attention to the economy power,convenience of transportation and the current situation of regional population.By combining previous study results with characteristics of studied areas,this paper built an index system based on the cell of town and analyzed the spatial disparities of the restriction and suitability level which have influences on the optimized allocation of population by using GIS method.Then this paper comprehensively assessed the suitability level for population growth and distribution in Taizhou City,and divided the studied area into different suitable types for population growth and distribution.This study shows that most of the suitable habitation area of Taizhou includes urban area of the city,counties and some towns close to them and Dainan,Suchen,Huangqiao towns.The comprehensive suitability levels for population distribution in the northern area,like Daying,Hechen,Dazhou towns,are relatively lower,which means the population growth rate should be controlled,and people in these regions should be guided to move to other towns which have lower ecologic restriction level,friendly environmental quality and higher economic attraction for population aggregation.

    QUANTITATIVE METHODS OF THE PATTERN OF URBAN EFFECT REGIONS
    ——A CASE OF JIANGXI PROVINCE
    ZHONG Ye-Chi, Liu-Yu-Qi
    2010, (05):  480. 
    Abstract ( 1560 )   PDF (514KB) ( 318 )   Save
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    As a research focus,in order to achieve the simplicity of the method and accuracy of the results,a great deal of research has been carried out.The problem can be solved by the spatial analysis function of Arcgis.Thanks to the help of Arcgis,according to the data of road network from 1997 to 2007 and 1 〖DK1〗∶250000 basic geographic data,the division of the timebased area and the hinterland area of Jiangxi central cities were done by shortest time and Fieldstrength model.Some countermeasures and suggestions have been put forward:(1)The traffic conditions in Jiangxi Province have improved.(2)The road network is an important factor in the evolution of urban effect region.(3)The effect of traffic construction applicable to the principle of diminishing marginal utility.Increase traffic investment in backward areas contributes to the achievement of the regional fair.(4)In some cities,administrative divisions are very irregular,with significant differences between cities in the hinterland areas,the model of county governing by province will help to solve this problem.(5)It is reasonable of dividing the effect region of the same grade cities by shortest time.(6)The Fieldstrength model is suitable for different level cities to divide the hinterland region with the quality of the cities.

    TENTATIVE DISCUSSION ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF URBANIZATION SPEED IN CHINA
    TUN Jian-Nan, Tao-Shi-Mou, Shu-Tian-Meng, William Y B Chang
    2010, (05):  487. 
    Abstract ( 1557 )   PDF (479KB) ( 269 )   Save
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    Throughout the course of urbanization development in China,despite the fact that we have remarkable achievements,many problems were caused,a concrete expression is the pressure on resources and ecological environment brought about by the rapid expansion of urbanization process.This paper described the background of development of cities both at home and abroad.Considering that the comprehensive support system include the land resources,water resources,environmental capacity is the main constraints of urban development,the authors also expounded the basic strategy for healthy development of urbanization in China.On the basis of analysis of the main influeneing factors of urbanization speed,and according to the per capita GDP growth and urban development conditions of the regions,the authors identified preliminarily the urbanization speed of different types of areas in China, and also analyzed its development trend.

    ON THE METHOD OF “IMMIGRANTINDUSTRYENVIRONMENT” SYMBIOSIS WATERSHED PLANNING IN THE MIDDLE REACH OF THE JINSHA RIVER
    MA Ren-Feng, CHEN Yu-Fang, WANG Xiao-Chun, ZHANG Meng, YAN Hui-Yan, YAO Ting, HAN Bo, WANG Xi-
    2010, (05):  493. 
    Abstract ( 1682 )   PDF (558KB) ( 239 )   Save
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    According to the implications and significance of the harmonious development of immigration,industry and environment, the author anyalyses the applicabilty of symbiosis theory in watershed planning.Based on The Leading Industry and Reservior Immigrant Sustainable Development in the Affected Area of step hydropower Stations alongside Middle Reach of Jinsha River,the essay establishes a basic analytical framework of its applicatinon, such as  the methodology of  watershed planning ,the specific measures, and the core of the “Immigrantthe Leading Industryenvironment’s” symbiosis watershed planning.Furtherly,it explains the basic characteristics and applied prospects of symbosis watershed planning

    COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF TOURISM RESOURCES BASED ON WEIGHTED TOPSIS METHOD——A CASE STUDY OF THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA
    ZHANG Hong, ZHANG Yan
    2010, (05):  500. 
    Abstract ( 1557 )   PDF (417KB) ( 288 )   Save
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    The tourist resources are the object of tourism activity,which are the material base and precondition 〖JP〗for existence and development of tourism.There are mainly the index method,the rank score method and the expert scoring in comparative analysis of regional competitiveness of tourism resources,which methods are comparatively influenced by subjective factors.The TOPSIS (Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) method is a multiple attribute decisionmaking method to identify solutions from a finite set of alternatives based upon the concept that the chosen alternative should have the shortest distance from the positive ideal solution and the farthest distance from the negative ideal solution.In this paper, firstly,the TOPSIS method and how to define the weight by information entropy were introduced.Then,the index system of regional competitiveness of tourism resources was built according to the attribute of tourism resources.Based on the weighted TOPSIS method,the regional competitiveness of tourism resources of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta was studied.The analysis results indicate that there is much difference among the 16 cities in tourism resources competitiveness.Suzhou and Hangzhou are the strongest competitive,however,Taizhou and Nantong are the weakest.The conclusion indicates that the weighted TOPSIS method could be applied to the comparative analysis on regional competitiveness of tourism resources,and can reduce the subjective influence and improve the reliability of evaluation results

    ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACT OF THE CROSS YANGTZE PASSAGE ON TOWNS' ACCESSIBILITY
    ——A CASE OF SUTONG BRIDGE
    JIANG Hai-Bing, Xu-Jian-Gang, SHANG Shuo-
    2010, (05):  506. 
    Abstract ( 1521 )   PDF (589KB) ( 284 )   Save
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    The construction of the Cross Yangtze Bridge will improve the 〖JP2〗level of related towns’ accessibility〖JP〗 and better towns’ location condition by reducing time distance between town and main city,which drive towns’ economic development.In order to quantitatively evaluate the effect of the bridge on the towns’ accessibility and the urban system,we took SuTong Yangtze Bridge for examples 〖JP2〗and select the accessibility〖JP〗 indicator,the potential model and fieldstrength index to analyze towns’ accessibility spatial pattern and town system in study area before and after SuTong Yangtze River Bridge opened to traffic by using the cost weighted distance analysis in geographic information system.The result indicates that the significant changes in location advantage potential and accessibility take place in eastern Nantong and near the bridge.The overall towns’ level of accessibility and location potential advantage have some growth in study region.Smaller change takes place toward the whole town accessibility spatial pattern after the bridge were completed,which shows accessible value growth trend from east to west in the south of the Yangtze River and from west to east in the north of the River.Small change occurs in town spatial system and the most change exists near both sides of the bridge.The overall fieldstrength shows gradually decrease from southwest to northeast in study area.The above conclusion indicates that the bridge optimize the location conditions of the eastern Nantong, which make towns in their region more quickly and comfortably accept the developed regions “spillover effect” of industry and knowledge,speed up industry of the southern Jiangsu transfer toward eastern Nantong and promote to balance regional development

    ON FAUNA AND DIVERSITY OF ODONATA IN NANJING, JIANGSU PROVINCE
    YU Wei-Yan, LI Chao-Hui, HUANG Cheng, LIU Jing, JIAN Ya-Ping, HU Ning, JI Ji
    2010, (05):  514. 
    Abstract ( 1611 )   PDF (488KB) ( 223 )   Save
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    Based on the identification of specimens of Odonata collected in Nanjing area of Jiangsu from 2005 to 2008,the total species of dragonflies recorded and collected were 45,which consist of 8 families,29 genera.The characteristic of the fauna is that Oriental species take the most part.There are 13 species belonging to Oriental,which accounted for 2889% in total.Palearctic species is comparatively poor.There are 5 Palearctic species,which accounted for 1111% in total.Calculating species richness(〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗),species composition similarity (〖WTBX〗Cs〖WTBZ〗) and species diversity index (〖WTBX〗H′〖WTBZ〗) for the seven habitats showed that the species richness decreased in the following sequence:Zijin Mountain(30)=Lao Mountain(30)>Jiangjun Mountain(24)>Jiangxinzhou Alluvion(19)>Fang Mountain(18)>Donglu Mountain(13)>Jinniu Lake(9);the species diversity decreased in a different sequence:Jiangjun Mountain(2.9298)>Zijin Mountain(2.9150)>Lao Mountain(2.7258)>Fang Mountain(2.6574)>Jiangxinzhou Alluvion(2.5478)>Donglu Mountain (1.9025)>Jinniu Lake(1.6700).The dragonfly species composition between Fang Mountain and Donglu Mountain had the highest similarity (0.7742),while Jinniu Lake and Lao Mountain had the lowest similarity (0.4103).

    SIMULATION OF LAND USE DYNAMICS BASED ON CLUES MODEL IN QIANDAO LAKE TOWN,HANGZHOU CITY
    SUO Dun-Feng, DIAO Jun
    2010, (05):  522. 
    Abstract ( 1558 )   PDF (501KB) ( 248 )   Save
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    Based on land use datum of 1993 and 2004,and a digital elevation 〖JP2〗model with a scale of 1〖DK〗∶250000,〖JP〗the key driving factors to the main spatial distribution and change of land use type in Qiandao lake town were selected for the different periods from biophysical and socioeconomic factors such as terrain,elevation roads,water system,urban and rural residential areas by technology of GIS.Then the probability maps for each land use type were created by using Logistic stepwise regression,of which the goodness of fit is evaluated for all equations with the ROC(Relative Operating Charcteristics)method.In this study,CLUES model which has the capability of modeling changes in quantity and location simultaneously,was applied to simulate temporal and spatial changes in land use from 1993 to 2004.CLUES’s simulation results were compared with maps of the actual distribution of land use in 2004 for validation.The results indicated that CLUES was capable of classifying correctly 8471% of the grid cells and Kappa index reached to 0825 in the simulation at the basic grid level (90 m×90 m),indicating a successful simulation.For a better understanding of the future land use changes in Qiandao lake town,the same model was furthe applied to predict spatial distribution of land use change in 2015 for two scenarios associating with current governmental policy.Comparing two status land use maps of Year 2015 and 2004,the obvious change is the expansion of land for urban areas and mining and the reduction of forest land,meanwhile,the expansion of land for urban areas and mining is usually based on the original land for urban areas and mining,which invaded some forest land,cultivated land and idle land.

    MONITORING FOR MULTIPLE CROPPING INDEX OF CULTIVATED LAND IN
     CENTRAL CHINA USING TIME SERIES OF MODISEVI
     
    WANG Li-Hui, HUANG Jin-Liang, SUN Dun-Yang
    2010, (05):  529. 
    Abstract ( 1581 )   PDF (498KB) ( 299 )   Save
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    〗Multiple Cropping Index is a very important indicator in agricultural statistic in China,which represents the degree of utilizing agriculture resources at time scale and the situation of arable land effective using.The time series of EVI contain the rhythm of vegetation growth and wilting,and can accurately reflect the biophysical processes of planting,seedling,elongating, heading and harvesting of agricultural crops.The objective of this paper is monitoring Multiple Cropping Index of Central China according to the period of time series of MODISEVI after SavitzkyGolay filter processing from 2005 to 2008.The results revealed that this method could provide an effective way to monitor Multiple Cropping Index.Results are accurate and stable.The slope of linear regression of the Multiple Cropping Index between remote sensing data and statistical data was 11097(〖WTBX〗R2=0759,P〖WTBZ〗<00001).The total precision of sample validation based on visual identification was 924% and precision of sampling areas based on visual identification was 9791%,suggesting that according to the period of time series of MODISEVI it could provide an effective way to extracting spatial information of the Multiple Cropping Index for management department of agriculture.

    SOIL ORGANIC CARBON UNDER DIFFERENT FORESTS FOR WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION
    WANG Hai-Yan, ZHANG Hong-Jiang, YANG Beng, WANG Wei
    2010, (05):  535. 
    Abstract ( 1514 )   PDF (347KB) ( 308 )   Save
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    Different forests for water and soil conservation in Simian Mountain of Chongqing were selected for field experiment to study soil organic carbon (SOC) content in 0~20,20~40 and 40~60 cm and SOC density to different soil depths.Results showed that the mean SOC content in 0~20,20~40 and 40~60 cm was 33.09, 7.51 and 3.21 g/kg,respectively.The SOC density to the depth of 20 cm ranged from 4.97 to 14.31 kg/m2,and that to 60 cm ranged from 7.84 to 17.94 kg/m2 with the mean of 12.78 kg/m2 in forest stands for water and soil conservation.With increasing soil depth,SOC content and density decreased significantly,but the decrease varied with tree species composition.Significant differences were found for SOC density to the depth of 60 cm in different forest stands,which decreased in the order of natural secondary forests > plantations for water and soil conservation > agricultural land.The highest SOC density (17.94 kg/m2) was found in the natural broadleaved mixed forest,and the lowest one (7.84 kg/m2) in the agricultural land.Among plantations for water and soil conservation,the highest SOC density was found in the broadleaved mixed plantation.Therefore,broadleaved mixed plantation is suggested to be established to increase SOC

    WATER HOLDING CAPACITY OF LITTER LAYERS AND SOIL INFILTRATION CAPABILITY OF SUBAPPINE CONIFEROUS PLANTATIONS IN WESTERN SICHUAN|CHINA
    HE Xiao-Feng, LI Xian-Wei, ZHANG Jian, ZHANG Xin-Hua, DAI Jie, Zhang-Liang-Hui
    2010, (05):  540. 
    Abstract ( 1918 )   PDF (459KB) ( 305 )   Save
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    In order to provide scientific basis for evaluating water conservation benefit and allocating stand structure,the cumulated mass (CM) and maximal water holding capacity (MWHC) of litter layers,and soil water storage capacity and infiltration capability of different coniferous plantations in the different ecological restoration stages were examined in the subalpine region of western Sichuan.The results showed that CM increased with the increased age of plantation,and it was in the order of 70a spruce plantation(F)>40a spruce plantation(C)>40a sprucelarch plantation(E)>55a spruce plantation(B)>40a larch plantation(D)>birch forests(BF)>25a sprucelarch plantation(A)> shrub forest(SH)> bare land(BL).MWHC showed a similar pattern.With the increment of soil depth,the soil bulk density increased and organic matter content and noncapillary porosity decreased,whereas pH,capillary porosity and total porosity showed no significant change.In the layer of 0~30 cm,the soil noncapillary waterstorage capacity were 3632~7037 t/hm2,and in the order of E>C>F>SF>D>BF>B>A>BL;maximum waterstorage capacity were 12294~23154 t/hm2,and in the order of SF>D>F>E>A>B>BF>C>BL.In the layer of 0~20 cm,soil initial infiltration rate were 08~2595 mm/min,and in the order of C>D>E>BF>B>SF>F>A>BL;soil solid infiltration rate were 055~425 mm/min,and in the order of BF>E>SF>A>B>F>D>C>BL.There were great significant correlations(〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗<001) between the indexes of infiltration characteristics,soil buck density,the organic matter content and noncapillary porosity,whereas solid infiltration rate was inversely correlated with CM significantly (〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗<005).〖

    VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF FRACTIONS OF Pb|Cd|Ni|Zn|Cr AND Mo IN SEDIMENTS OF AN URBAN LAKE
    WANG Pei-Fang, JU Li-Min, WANG Chao, LIN Zhi-Ping
    2010, (05):  547. 
    Abstract ( 1668 )   PDF (460KB) ( 238 )   Save
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    Total contents of Pb,Cd,Ni,Zn,Cr and Mo in sediments of Xuanwu lake,a shallow urban lake,were determined,and the chemical fractions of these metals were also investigated using BCR’s sequential extraction procedure to evaluate the vertical distribution of metals in the sediment and their potential mobility.The results showed that metal total contents were in the order of  Zn (14880~24412 mg/kg)>Cr (11255~13578 mg/kg)>Mo (5519~7730 mg/kg)>Ni (4142~4981 mg/kg)>Pb (857~2005 mg/kg)>Cd (129~173 mg/kg).Except for Pb,all these contents exceeded the background values of soils in Nanjing city.In the 50 cm sediment profile,Pb and Cd were mainly in the oxidizable and residual fractions,while Mo,Ni,Zn and Cr distributed mainly in the residual fraction.The vertical distribution of total metal contents and their fractions varied greatly.Because the pH of the sediment of Xuanwu lake leaned to acidic or nearneutral (582~713),it can be assumed that the exchangeable and reducible fractions are vulnerable,and the risk can be high for the potential release of Zn,Mo,Ni and Cd.The abundant organic matter (80%~110%) in the sediment reveals the potential mobility of oxidizable fraction,which can be degraded over the time.The high percentages of Pb (7550%) and Cr (4238%) in the oxidizable fraction imply the potential risk of mobility.Enough attention must be paid to the risk of heavy metals release during the processes of pollution control of urban lakes.

    BEARING CAPACITY OF RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT OF YA′AN——HEAVILY DAMAGED AREA BY WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
    LIU Yu-Juan, LIU Shao-Quan, LIU Bin-Chao, LIU Chu-Zhen
    2010, (05):  554. 
    Abstract ( 2005 )   PDF (453KB) ( 299 )   Save
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    Evaluation of the resources and environment bearing capacity is an important part of the national restoration and reconstruction planning after Wenchuan earthquake.It aims for putting forward the population quantity suitable for the resources and environment bearing capacity.This paper proposes an evaluating method based on three key factors:water resources,cultivated land resources and environmental capacity.The evaluating method has been applied to calculate the population bearing capacity of resources and environment of Ya’an city which was heavily damaged by the earthquake.According to “cask effect”,the population bearing capacity based on cultivated land resources has been selected to reflect the resources and environment bearing capacity.Population bearing capacity have been analyzed from cultivated landgrain resources and income from cultivated land economy to determine the proper population scale synthetically.It is concluded that the population bearing capacity based on resources and environment before 2010 is 1535~159 million,and it’s not necessary to transfer population in large scale.For meeting welloff standard in 2020,it is 1585~164 million.Totally the resources and environment can meet postearthquake population demand for welloff society,but it needs to take comprehensive policies to lead the population to migrate to Yucheng and Mingshan County which have more capacity potential,strong industry and population concentration abilities 〖WTHZ

    IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF DAMS ON THE FLOW REGIME OF LOWER RIVER BY IMPROVED RVA
    YANG Na, MEI E-Dong, YIN Zhi-Wei-
    2010, (05):  560. 
    Abstract ( 1703 )   PDF (468KB) ( 276 )   Save
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    Study on the changes of flow regime in the lower reach of dams provides a new way to research the river ecosystem stress coming from hydraulic engineering.Based on 32 hydrological parameters,RVA(Range of Variability Approach)quantified the changes of flow regime and gives the range of variability to control the flow,while the flow was characterized by five characters such as magnitude,frequency,duration,timing and rates of change.However,the estimation part of the RVA performed impropriate in some situation,for that reason,a new estimation way was proposed in the paper.The improved method was applied to Shanxi reservoir built on Feiyun River,and the daily flow data were obtained from the Xuekou hydrological station dated from 1956 to 2007.The flow variability range of the lower reach of Shanxi reservoir was calculated and the change degree was evaluated.By comparing the flow of predam to postdam,the 32 parameters of postdam all changed,among which the frequency and duration changed mostly.The improved estimation method performed better in determining the change range,and the estimation value showed that the river flow was moderate changed after the dam built.The change was mainly reflected on the shorter duration and more frequency of low flow event,which severely affected the river ecosystem.

    SUB PIXEL SNOW COVERAGE AND CORRELATION FACTORS ANALYSIS BASED ON MODIS AND HJ-1-B DATA
    ZHANG Xu, TANG Hong, DIAO Xiang, ZHOU Ting-Gang-
    2010, (05):  566. 
    Abstract ( 1537 )   PDF (466KB) ( 256 )   Save
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    Using HJ1B 30m observation as “ground truth” to calculate the percentage of snow cover for MODIS 480m cells,this paper present an algorithm for MODIS data to obtain subpixel snow cover information based on a regression relationship between MODIS 480m NDSI observation and fractional snow cover.The application of this method is tested in three regions located in Yushu,Qinghai province.The overall results indicate that the relationship between fractional snow cover and NDSI is reasonably robust with a mean absolute error less than 0.2.Fanally,based on snow cover information,this paper puts forward the
    land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as the two correlation factors related to percentage of snow cover.The analysis indicates that there is a significant negative correlation between them.Therefore,the results lays a foundation for extracting snow cover information based on multifactor

    ESSENTIALS AND CASE STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR PLANNING PROJECT
    DING Feng, Li Shi-Bei
    2010, (05):  572. 
    Abstract ( 1422 )   PDF (460KB) ( 320 )   Save
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    There is currently a lack of general method for assessment of environmental impact for planning,mostly because of the wide range of projects,high level of uncertainties,and the diversity of industries involved.Although many of the methods that are used in environmental impact assessment for construction projects can also be used for planning,great difference exists between the two.This work is based on analysis of characteristics and requirements for planning project,in specific reference to industrystandard to domestic and guidelines for atmospheric environmental impact assessment requirements.We proposed a general working scheme and four key elements.Through some case studies,we illustrated collection and analysis of basic information,scheme making of environmental impact assessment,scheme comparison of planning,and calculation of environmental capacity.Through the comprehensive analysis of the plan selection,site selection,scale of development,planning layout,industrial structure and regional planning development,proper suggestions of planning project and pollution control for the planning were presented.This will give a technical reference to the atmospheric environmental impact assessment for planning project

    STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF ROAD NETWORK PLAN——A CASE IN HUBEI
    BAI Hong-Chao, SHU Zhi-Xi, XU He, WANG Hui-Zhi
    2010, (05):  578. 
    Abstract ( 1563 )   PDF (463KB) ( 327 )   Save
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    China is experiencing a significant development of its road transport network,and this is causing ecological disruption and environmental issues.As for limitations of project environmental impact assessment,the enactment and implementation of 2003 EIA Law requires the assessment of environmental effects of transport plans and various provisions have been made to facilitate the implementation of transport strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and to integrate environmental considerations into transport decisionmaking process.However,most existing researches were concerning with the context and framework of transport SEA,so methods for evaluating the impacts of road network that links urban areas are still on the way.Based on the case study from Hubei Province funded by the World Bank,the key issues and methodologies of road network plant SEA were demonstrated in this paper,including the plan analysis,baseline assessment,key issues identification,forecast,institutional analysis and public participation.Finally some discussions on the transport planning tiering and the appropriate linkage were provided to improve the implement of the transport SEA in China

    CURRENT SITUATION AND POLICY PROPOSALS OF LANDFILL GAS CDM PROJECTS IN CHINA
    LIU Jian, LIU Wen-Juan, WANG Run
    2010, (05):  584. 
    Abstract ( 1569 )   PDF (430KB) ( 302 )   Save
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    According to the latest data,using statistical methods,the current situation of landfill gas CDM projects in China was analyzed in four aspects,including the overall situation,geographic distribution,international comparison,foreign cooperation partners and development agencies.Comparing with other types of CDM projects,those are in smallscale and with much less reduction;and the issued CERs are much less than which was estimated in PDD.Additionally the annual authorized number of CDM projects increased rapidly during the recent years and the projects are mainly distributed in the eastern and central regions of China as well as in the capital cities and the cities with independent budgetary status (Ji Hua Dan Lie).Unlike in other types of CDM project,China is located in the secondplace in landfill gas CDM projects and Latin American countries occupy the absolute superiority.The key international partner for LFG CDM comes from countries in European Union.At last,the major problems were summarized up and several policy proposals to resolve these problems were put forward.〖

    SCENARIOS PROJECTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE INDICES IN THE THREE GORGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
    ZHANG Tian-Yu, FAN Li, CHENG Bing-Yan, LIU Xiao-Dan, HU Chong-Hai
    2010, (05):  590. 
    Abstract ( 1620 )   PDF (502KB) ( 254 )   Save
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    The projections of extreme temperature indices(ETR、TN90 and HWDI)in the Three Gorges for the 21st century by using the global climate system models provided by PCMDI with the SRES A2,A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report were analyzed in this paper.The results showed that compared to the current climate(1980~1999),ETR will possibly increase in the most of period in the 21st century,TN90 and HWDI will sharply increase.During the 21th century(2011~2100),ETR will be increased by 04℃~08℃,TN90 increased by 133%~174%,HWDI increased by 85~133 day.In the earlier stage of 21st century(2011~2040),ETR will be increased by 02℃~06℃,TN90 increased by 51%~73%,HWDI increased by 31~41 day.In the mid 21st century (2041~2070),ETR will be increased by 04℃~10℃,TN90 increased by 136%~189%,HWDI increased by 77~121 day.In the later stage of 21st century (2071~2100),ETR will be increased by 06℃~14℃,TN90 increased by 191%~289%,HWDI increased by 143~237 day.

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