Abstract:

The projections of extreme temperature indices（ETR、TN90 and HWDI）in the Three Gorges for the 21st century by using the global climate system models provided by PCMDI with the SRES A2，A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report were analyzed in this paper.The results showed that compared to the current climate（1980～1999），ETR will possibly increase in the most of period in the 21st century，TN90 and HWDI will sharply increase.During the 21th century(2011～2100），ETR will be increased by 04℃~08℃，TN90 increased by 133%~174%，HWDI increased by 85~133 day.In the earlier stage of 21st century(2011～2040），ETR will be increased by 02℃~06℃，TN90 increased by 51%~73%，HWDI increased by 31~41 day.In the mid 21st century (2041～2070），ETR will be increased by 04℃~10℃，TN90 increased by 136%~189%，HWDI increased by 77~121 day.In the later stage of 21st century (2071～2100），ETR will be increased by 06℃~14℃，TN90 increased by 191%~289%，HWDI increased by 143~237 day.