Abstract:

The droughtwaterlogging encounter probability of water source area and receiving area in the Middle Route of SouthtoNorth Water Transfer Project is the important basis of water resources adjustment and cooperation.The set pair analysis was applied to research the droughtwaterlogging encounter probability of water source area and Hai river receiving area based on the droughtwaterlogging grade data from 1470 to 1979 and measured precipitation data from 1980 to 2000.The results showed that the droughtwaterlogging disaster occured frequently,the continuous hazards were serious,and it had an increasing tendency of the droughtwaterlogging disaster frequency and degree in recent three centuries.For the droughtwaterlogging state between water source area and Hai river receiving area,the connection degree was very low and the synchronization was also relatively poor,the profitable frequency of the droughtwaterlogging encounter for water transfer was 567%，and the disadvantageous frequency was 24.88%.In order to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of the Middle Route of SouthtoNorth Water Transfer Project,we should enhance the ability of water resources adjustment and cooperation with other water resources projects to ensure the water security of receiving areas.〖