The rapid expansion of urban land is a  serious problem that need to be solved. Using the panel data of 30 provincial capital cities in China from 2000 to 2014, this paper tested the relationship between industrial development, intensive land use and urban land expansion at the national and regional levels, and analyzed the mediating function of intensive land use. Major conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) At the national level, the increase of the tertiary industry scale and the upgrade of industrial structure inhibit the expansion of urban land, and the intensive land use plays partial mediating effect, and its contribution to the total effect is 10.3% and 12.6% respectively. 2) At the regional level, the increase of the tertiary industry scale and the upgrade of industrial structure has an indirect negative impact on the land expansion of the eastern cities by increasing the level of intensive land use; the increase of the secondary industry size has a direct effect on the urban land expansion of the central cities. 3) This study reveals the impact of different types of industrial development on urban land expansion in different regions and its path among them, and proposes a series of policy recommendations, which has realistic guiding for controlling the toorapid expansion of urban land in China.

The development strategy of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta region has risen to a national strategy, which requires the establishment of interregional coordination mechanism to guide lowcarbon industries and make up for the shortcomings of green development. Mastering the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions efficiency is of great practical significance for the low carbon development and the realization of carbon emission reduction target in the Yangtze River Delta region. Based on the combination of SBM model and window analysis, the carbon emissions efficiency was calculated. The spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta from 1995 to 2017 was analyzed by traditional statistical analysis and spatial analysis. Meanwhile, the spatial Durbin panel model was constructed to analyze its influencing factors. The results are shown as follows: (1) The carbon emissions efficiency showed a fluctuating trend over the period of 1995-2017. In 2017, Shanghai, Suzhou and Wuxi had the largest carbon emissions efficiency of 1. The absolute difference and relative difference in carbon emissions efficiency showed fluctuating trend, and the change trend is basically consistent. There was an imbalance in the carbon emissions efficiency. (2) There was obvious spatial disparity for carbon emissions efficiency, the spatial pattern of carbon emissions efficiency changed little since 2005. The high carbon emissions efficiency areas were mainly concentrated in Shanghai, Suzhou and Wuxi. The gravity center of carbon emissions efficiency was mainly distributed in Nanjing City, and moved to the northwest. (3) The results of spatial Durbin panel  model show that improving the technical  level is an important way to change the carbon emissions efficiency. Urbanization and spatial factors played a significantly positive effect role in improving carbon emissions efficiency, foreign investment, energy consumption per unit GDP and ecological environment  have a significantly negative impact on carbon emissions efficiency.

Scientific identification of PM _2.5 space differentiation and its driving factors is the key to regional air pollution control. Taking the daily average PM _2.5 concentration of national measure points as the data source, the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of PM _2.5 concentration in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations were studied based on various spatial analysis methods. The results showed that: (1) From 2013 to 2017, the annual average concentration of PM _2.5 in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations was on a declining trend; the differences among cities showed a gradually decreasing trend. (2) The concentration of PM _2.5 was highest in December and lowest in August. From January to December, the concentration of PM _2.5 decreased first and then increased. (3) In 2013, the high concentration area of PM _2.5 was mainly distributed in Jiangsu Province; in 2017, the high concentration area of PM _2.5 was mainly distributed in Anhui Province. In the past five years, the spatial barycenter of PM _2.5 concentration shifted 72 km to Anhui Province. (4) There was obvious spatial autocorrelation of PM _2.5 concentration in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations. In addition, there was a phenomenon of "flock together " for highhigh value area and lowlow value area of PM _2.5 concentration, and the agglomeration degree had an increasing trend. (5) The influencing factors of PM _2.5 concentration include natural factors and social factors. Natural factors found that rainfall is now related to PM2.5concentration. Social factors mainly come from industrial emissions, traffic emissions and energy consumption. Among them, the impact of energy consumption was the largest, followed by industrial emissions, traffic emissions ranked last.

Research on the landscape pattern changes in port city have reference significance for port city land use planning and Industrial distribution. Taking the area of the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay as an example, based on the ANNCA model and landscape ecology theory, this study simulates and predicts the land use situation in 2025. Finally, it uses the landscape pattern index to deeply analyze the landscape pattern changes in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay and its driving factor from 1995 to 2025. The results show that: the area of cultivated land, grassland and waters in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay tends to decrease during this 30year period. The proportion of urban, port and adjacent port area increased significantly to 16.19%, 7.72% and 22.20%, while nonconstruction land is gradually transformed into port and urban construction land. Landscape structure tends to be complex. In the early stage, landscape dominance gradually disappears. Degree of fragmentation, landscape richness and heterogeneity increases. patch tend to be distributed. In the later period, landscape dominance has turned up. Degree of fragmentation, landscape diversity and uniformity tend to decrease. The rapid development of social economy and port industry is the main factor driving land use and landscape pattern change in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay. With the contradiction between the port and the city has become more prominent, the expansion of the port and adjacent port land tend to be saturated. Therefore, this study puts forward suggestions to speed up the outward transfer of ports and their adjacent industries and to improve the degree of land use intensive.

Insufficient research on the response mechanism of current ecosystem service function to urban land expansion process. We studied the Wuhan, as a case example to calculate the value of important ecosystem services, and exploring the impact mechanism of urban expansion on ecological services. The results were as follows．(1) From 1990 to 2015,expect the Hydrological regulation, the value of other ecosystem service functions declined negatively, and the value of food supply has fallen the most. (2) The demand pressure of ecosystem service functions brought about by population growth is far greater than the direct destruction of ecosystem services by urban expansion. (3) In the urban expansion of Wuhan for the past 25 years, the destructiveness of food supply was the most serious, the destructiveness of hydrological regulation is less than food supply, and the destructiveness of biodiversity and soil conservation was relatively low. In the future urban expansion of Wuhan, it is forbidden to encroach on the area of waters and forests, adjust the occupational structure of farmland, and improve the intensive utilization level of construction land.

Based on the data of industrial land transfer in Wuhan City from 2010 to 2018, the paper discussed the general and industrial characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution on industrial land of Wuhan with the help of GIS technology, Moran I analysis, kernel density analysis, location quotient and other methods on the basis of studying the overall pattern of industrial land in Wuhan. The results show that: (1) the nearsuburb area where the transferred wuhan industrial land space are located has an obvious directivity, and is circular agglomerated within the research area.(2) From 2010 to 2018, the overall scale of the transferred wuhan industrial land showed a downward trend, with the core area shifted from the northeast to the southwest, and the spatial change showed a trend of agglomeration from inner urban areas to suburbs. (3)under the industry classification, the transfer unit of industrial land is mainly processing industry, but with time, the leading industry has evolved from the processing industry to the hightech industry, and the spatial layout of different industries is different: Food textile industry has the distribution advantage in inner city and far suburbs；Processing industry and raw material industry tend to be distributed in the suburbs; Hightech industry is mainly concentrated in the Optics valley industrial sector; Industrial supporting production and life services is mostly distributed in human and industrial agglomeration areas. Electricity, heat, gas, water production and supply are scattered in the suburbs.

The quality of basic public service is an important index of the economic development level and social civilization of a region or city. By establishing the evaluation system of basic public service, this article evaluated the level of basic public service in Hunan Province, then analyzed the spatial pattern of basic public service quality by using the spatial autocorrelation method, and finally studied the spatial spillover effects and the influence factors of basic public service by using Spatial Durbin Model. The results showed that, （1) The level of basic public service quality in cities of Hunan Province showed a different degree of upward trend from 2008 to 2017, but the overall level was not high. The spatial pattern showed a semiannular belt structure that attenuated from east to west. (2) The basic public service had significant global and local autocorrelation in the interurban city. The various types of basic public service showed the spatial evolution mode of agglomerationdispersionagglomeration. The local autocorrelation results showed that the spatial club convergence characteristics of H-H and L-L agglomeration was obvious. The distribution and amount of various agglomeration types remained stable. (3) The spatial Durbin Model test showed that there existed spatial spillover effects of basic public service among cities in Hunan Province. The level of regional basic public service was not only influenced by the region itself factors, also affected by the basic public service level of adjacent areas. The regression results showed that the urbanization level, level of openingup, local financial expenditure and regional economic vitality had a positive influence on the basic public service.

Shitouzhai Village, a tourist village, adjacent to the Huangguoshu waterfall scenic spot, is taken as a typical case. Spatial analysis and participatory evaluation method are applied to analyze the change rules of land use pattern in Shitouzhai village in the past 34 years, by using the status quo of settlement land and multitemporal remote sensing image data. The results are shown as follows： (1)There are three stages of the land use pattern evaluation, including the slow start stage, the accelerated expansion stage and the expansion decline stage. Land use realizes the process of spatial expansion from the core to the periphery, as well as from the plane to the spatial scale. In spatial scale, there is a significant expansion pattern along the river and road. (2)“Tourization process” prompts the transition of the function of rural settlements in Shitouzhai Village. In this rural area, the proportion of residential land is reduced, while the proportion of nonresidential land such as tourism accommodation, tourism catering and tourism services is increased. The function of rural settlements changes from single living function to compound function, including living, leisure and tourism. (3) Main factors, including the village’s natural geographical conditions, tourism resource development, Huangguoshu waterfall scenic spot tourism market demand and the government’s progressive regulation, have contributed to these changes in different stages. At present, Shitouzhai Village has entered into a stage of transformation and upgrading orientation by the development of characteristic tourism. For its rural tourism development, the original land use patterns are not sustainable. Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable development of rural tourism, the planning and design and the construction management of the usage of rural land must be strengthened and the supporting institutional system must be improved, by considering the characteristics and requirements of rural settlement land for tourism and the existing rural settlement tourism land demand as well.

Urban spatial growth is an important part in research of urban development. The research of rigid growth based on ecological suitability evaluation has not been paid enough attention. Based on the fragility and the uniqueness of the ecological environment of plateau mountains, the research selected indicators, such as topography, geology, reservoir and lakes, historical and natural reserves, land cover, to evaluate the ecological suitability of land with AHP and delimited the rigid UGB of Kunming with an area of 782.45 km2. The research came to the conclusion: ①By comparing the rigid UGB and the scope of central city spatial regulation of Kunming Master plan, which is 852.93 km2, the Master plan should formulate more stringent measures to protect the ecological environment, especially the water resources along the Dianchi Lake; ②The status quo of construction land exceeds the rigid UGB by 27.74 km2, accounting for 6.49% of the total construction land. Space for development in main urban area is limited, the maximum margin of future construction land growth is 355.21  km2, which located mainly in Chenggong District and the New Zone of Airport. It is necessary to carry out macrocontrol from a regional perspective to reduce the agglomeration of resources, industries and population in main urban area. Especially, the population size and industrial planning should be reasonably formulated according to the water supply status in Dianchi Lake basin. Following planning suggestions are proposed: ①Ecological control and integration of land use structure should be strengthened. To protect the ecological security of the ecological fragile area, ecological protection buffer zone should be established along the coast of Dianchi Lake and around the ecological sensitive area against the mountains. ②The developing sequences of urban construction should be strictly controlled, so that the internal urban renewal and the construction of new districts could be completed in phases. ③In order to ensure the background boundary of ecological security and the integrity of the ecological environment around the city, the construction land out of the rigid UGB should be transferred in stages.

The construction of fishing facilities is an important measure to mitigate the adverse effects of river dams on fish.Taking the section from the dam site of Jiangjiakou to 580 m below it as the research area, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model based on MIKE21 is constructed. According to the hydrological situation of the project, the paper analyzes the flow field of the river under typical working conditions, and explores the possible upward tracking path of fish under different conditions.The results show that: Under the condition of mainstream flow rate is 5.40~40.74 m3/s and trapped fish flow rate is 2.50 m3/s, the mainstream will flow downstream from the right bank constrained by the outflow of fish-trapping.Considering only 17.67 m3/s discharge from Unit 2,the upstream route of target fish migration is provided by simulated river course.From 30 m to 100 m away from the entrance of fish-trapping, the optimum flow velocity and water depth of fish are satisfied in the middle of the river, and fish will migrate along the middle of the river;From 0 m to 30 m, the flow velocity on the right bank increases gradually and becomes the optimum flow velocity for fish. Fish migrate from the right bank and finally reach the entrance of trapping fish.At the distance of 0 m,The water depth of the right bank is 10%~40% higher than that of the middle bank,and 90%-170% higher than that of the left bank. The high water depth at the entrance of the trapping fish will facilitate the entry of the fish.For the import confluence of “T” shaped trapping fish, the trapping fish flow accounting for about 12% can produce better hydraulic characteristics of trapping fish import.The research results can provide a reference for fish tracing at the entrance of trapping fish.

Water resources are the lifeline of economic and social development, Xinjiang has been facing severe water shortage and eco-environmental vulnerability for a long time. Hence study the carrying capacity of water resources and it’s spatial-temporal characteristics in Xinjiang has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper select the evaluation indexes of water resources, social, economic, ecology and coordination system, calculates the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity by building a comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity in fifteen regions in Xinjiang. In addition, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity are analyzed. The result showed that: Tarbagatay Prefecture, Altay Prefecture and Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture classified as the suitable carrying capacity area, Shihezi City and Karamay City classified as the grossly overloaded area, Aksu prefecture and Kashi prefecture classified as the lightly overloaded area, the other eight regions belong to the edge of the overloaded area; From the perspective of development trend, the edge of the overloaded area and the lightly overloaded area have been decreased slightly, while the suitable carrying capacity area have been increased slightly. Generally speaking, the most regions of Xinjiang’s water resources carrying capacity are on the edge of the overloaded area, the coordination level of water resources and socio- economic is generally low, the distribution of water resources are extremely unbalanced, and the distribution of water resources did not match with the distribution of population and economic development. But in nearly ten years, the comprehensive level of water resources carrying capacity shows a better development trend in most regions in Xinjiang. Finally, the policy suggestions are put forward to improve the carrying capacity of water resources.

Previous studies prove that the pollution generated in the development of the marine economy has no significant impact on the changes in marine environmental quality. Marine pollution mainly originates from the land area, and there is a close relationship between the marine environment and the land economy. However, the research on the impact of the evolution of the industrial structure on the marine environment is not enough. It is of great significance to expand the research to promote the improvement of the marine environment. In this paper, the VAR Model and the Tapio Decoupling Model are used to explore the dynamic impact of the industrial structure optimization and rationalization of the Yangtze River Basin and the East China Sea coast on the marine environment of the East China Sea from 2001 to 2017, while the decoupling stages are utilized for confirming this effect. The research results are as follows: (1)The optimization of the industrial structure of the land area is conducive to the improvement of the marine environment, which is due to the replacement of the dominant position between industries and the technological innovation within the industry. The development of the rationalization of the land industrial structure is volatile, resulting in its impact on the marine environment is not significant enough. Some marine pollution can be digested by the purifying ability of seawater, but the residual pollution has adversely affected the marine environment. (2)From 2002 to 2017, the marine environment of the East China Sea and the optimization of the industrial structure of the Yangtze River Basin and the East China Sea coast have the decoupling stage of ‘significant changes-steady changes-continuous decoupling’, while the marine environment and the rationalization of the industrial structure have the decoupling stage of ‘violent changes-fluctuations-continuous decoupling’. This decoupling analysis confirms the impact of the industrial structure evolution on the marine environment.

Under the background of global climate change, the drought estimated by the stationary standardized precipitation index (SSPI) may be greatly deviated due to the nonstationarity of precipitation time series. In this study, the non-stationary gamma model with variable parameters is established by fitting the model parameters with climate indices as explanatory variables based on GAMLSS model, and the non-stationary standardized precipitation index (NSPI) is calculated and compared with the SSPI. Then, the spatio-temporal change characteristics of drought in the Yangtze River Basin from 1962 to 2016 are investigated by using the NSPI. The results are as follows: (1) The changes of NSPI and SSPI are basically the same, but the non-stationary gamma model is better than stationary gamma model in reproducing precipitation to capture precipitation changes under the current global climate change. (2) The drought in the Yangtze River Basin tends to increase from 1962 to 2016. The drought severity, duration, intensity and peak increased, respectively, with average rates of 0.064, 0.041, 0.023 and 0.027 per ten years in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, while increased, respectively, by average rates of 0.151, 0.089, 0.021 and 0.030 per ten years in the middle and lower reaches. The intensity of drought is mainly mild to moderate drought. The drought is more serious in the source of the Yangtze River and the southwest of Sichuan Basin, while the drought is relatively mild in the upper reaches of Jinsha River and Yalong River and the south of Poyang Lake. (3) Compared with SSPI, the return period of the same drought severity and duration estimated by NSPI is larger, and the estimated drought events are more lumped. The drought risk of NSPI indicates that higher risk of drought occurs mainly in the source of Yangtze River, the lower reaches of Jinsha River and the middle of Dongting Lake Basin, while lower risk of drought covers mainly in the upper reaches of Sichuan river and the southeast of Poyang Lake. (4) The NSPI estimated by the non-stationary gamma model can better predict the drought characteristics, and the prediction performance of drought severity and duration is better.

The aim of this paper is to study the effects of simulated acid rain on the release of nutrient salts and heavy metals of sediment by reducing the pH value of overlying water from chaohu lake, so as to predict the effects of acid rain or acid wastewater on the stability of lake ecosystem.The simulated results showed that the pH value of the overlying water recovered after simulated acid rain, but the resilience of strongly acidic simulated acid rain (pH 4.0) was poor. During the experiment, the order of DO content in water was CK > the test group (pH 5.5) > the test group (pH 4.0). The simulated acid rain promoted the release of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sediment, and the content of TN and TP in the overlying water of the test group (pH 4.0) was significantly higher thanthe test group (pH 5.5) (P<0.05). Iron/aluminum phosphate were released mainly under weakly acidic simulated acid rain condition while calcium phosphate were released mainly understrongly acidic simulated acid rain condition. The biomass of Microcystis sp. was the largest of the control group, but not the two experimental groups, indicating that the simulated acid raincould inhibit the growth of Microcystis sp.. The pH value, TN, TP and Iron/aluminum phosphate were significantly correlated with the content of Pb, Zn, Cd and Cu, the four major heavy metals in the sediment (P<0.05), indicating that acid rain and nutrient salts were important factors affecting the occurrence and release of heavy metals in the sediment.

The Hanjiang River Basin is not only the water source of China's South-to-North Water Transfer Project, but also an important ecological function area of the country. The interaction of ecosystem service in Hanjiang River Basin plays an important role in coordinating regional development and environmental protection. In this paper, we mapped the ecosystem service of soil conservation, carbon storage and food supply in Hanjiang River Basin from 2000 to 2015 by RS and GIS technique, and then studied the trade-off and synergy between the three ecosystem services based on the spatial sampling method. The results are shown as follows: ① In 2000-2015, the soil conservation in Hanjiang River Basin decreased in fluctuations. The high value regions of soil conservation are located in the upper reaches in Hanjiang River Basin, where is forest and grassland cross-area. The low value is in the single-type areas such as forest land or cultivated land in the middle-lower reaches of Hanjiang River Basin. In addition, the annual variation of carbon storage is small, the distribution characteristics of carbon storage are consistent with that of soil conservation. Food supply is growing rapidly, with high region located in plains of the middle-lower reaches, and low value regions in the mountainous and basin areas of upper reaches. ② When analyzing trade-offs and synergies, there are trade-off relationships between the ecosystem services of carbon storage and food supply, soil conservation and food supply. In contrast, the interaction between carbon storage and soil conservation is prone to synergistic. It indicates that trade-off and synergy between multiple ecosystem services have spatial heterogeneity. ③ The results of spatial hotspot mapping show that, from 2000 to 2015, the proportion of category 0 hotspot present a decreasing tendency, and grassland is the main land type of 0 class; The category 1 hotspot distribates in the cultivated land, account for the largest proportion and present an increasing trend, which dominant ecosystem service is food supply. The category 2 hotspot decreases for some extend, mainly distribute in forest areas of the upper-middle reaches in Hanjiang River Basin. The ecosystem services of the category 2 are carbon storage and soil conservation. Moreover, the proportion of category 3 hotspot is very small. These findings contribute to revealing regional difference of ecosystem service.

In this paper, aiming at the problem of sediment transport characteristics of granite small watershed in South China, taking Wushui watershed in Hengyang County, Hunan Province as the research object, the Mann-Kendall catastrophe analysis method, double cumulative curve method and watershed comparative analysis method are used to comprehensively analyze the temporal and spatial law of sediment transport in typical granite watershed in South China. The results show that the granite basin has a higher sediment transport modulus than other basins due to the influence of the structure and mineral composition of the weathered granite soil. Taking the Wushui basin as an example, its value can be several times higher than that of the non-granite basin under the same meteorological conditions. Similar to many basins in China, the sediment transport modulus of Wushui basin also shows the characteristics of gradual decline, which is closely related to the "The Great Leap Forward", "Learn from Dazhai in Agriculture", "The Household Contract Responsibility System", "Return the Grain Plots to Forestry" and other policies, but different from many other basins, the three stages of sediment transport modulus change in Wushui basin are mainly caused by human activities The influence of the change of the cover is not significant.

Under the influence of global climate change and human activities, attributing river runoff changes is practically significant for the rational use and distribution of water resources. In this study, we selected the upstream areas of Yajiang Hydrological Station in the Yalong River Basin as the research area. The linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and cumulative anomaly method were used to analyze the characteristics of hydrological and climatic elements in the study area from 1961 to 2015. Based on the coupled water-energy balance principle of Budyko hypothesis, we estimated the elastic coefficient of the runoff variation corresponding to each influencing factor using the elastic coefficient method, and conducted the attribution analysis on the runoff variation. The results show that in the past 55 years, the annual runoff depth of the study area in general increased at 0.496 mm/a, and a significant change from low to high occurred in 1999. The changes of annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration show an increasing trend at 0.994 mm/a and a decreasing trend at -0.246 mm/a, respectively. The elastic coefficients of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface are 1.40, -0.40 and -0.83, respectively, indicating that the annual runoff was most sensitive to the change of precipitation, followed by the change of the underlying surface; the sensitivity to the change of potential evapotranspiration was the lowest. The sensitivity of annual runoff to climate change was slightly enhanced, while its sensitivity to the change of underlying surface was gradually weakened. Climate change was the dominant factor contributing to the increase of annual runoff, and its contribution is 60.66%, in which the contribution of precipitation is 59.21%, the contribution of potential evapotranspiration is 1.45%, and the contribution of underlying surface changes is 39.34%. NDVI, which represents the underlying surface, showed a decreasing trend since 1999, and is an important reason for the increase of runoff.

As an important starting point for realizing the strategy of rural rejuvenation, how to achieve zero growth in pesticides is central to the agricultural policy. From the perspective of investment of fine management technology, the paper attempted to analyze the impact of labor cost on behavior of farmers pesticide usage based on micro-survey data of farmers in 18 provinces. The results showed as follows: The rising labor cost has led to an increase in the amount of pesticide application for farmers who engaged in the cultivation of labor-intensive crops such as horticulture. What’s more, the investment in fine management technology will play a part of the mediating role between labor cost and pesticide application. The efficiency of pesticide application had been improved and the amount of pesticide application every time had been reduced by adding more fine management technology. At the same time, there was no significant difference among farmers with different fine-management technology inputs in the total pesticide usage, duo to relatively high number of pesticide applications for farmers facing more risk of production. Therefore, tit is necessary to support the agricultural product brand construction, develop agricultural production service organization which guides the farmers to refine the production method in order to reducing amount of pesticide usage.

Based on the principle of profit maximization in neoclassical economics, 771 apple growers samples in the apple predominant area of the Loess Plateau were used to analyze the market incentive effect of farmers' commercial organic fertilizer input and the regulatory effect of farmland confirmation in the incentive effect. The results show: (1)Farmers' commercial organic fertilizer input is simultaneously stimulated by the agricultural product market and the farmland market, both the apple market and the farmland market have an effective incentive effect on the commercial organic fertilizer input of apple growers in the Loess Plateau; (2)The market incentive effect of apple market on commercial organic fertilizer input of apple growers is higher than that of farmland market; (3)Farmland confirmation has a positive regulatory effect on the incentive effect of farmers' commercial organic fertilizer input in farmland market. This study extends the theoretical interpretation of the farmers' protective investment behavior for farmland by neoclassical economics, and provides a reference for how to effectively encourage farmers to increase the application of commercial organic fertilizer.

It is of great significance to protect farmers’ grain cultivation enthusiasm and agricultural production willingness so as to consolidate the foundation of agriculture in economy and guarantee national food security. Based on the field survey data of 769 rural households in Hubei Province, using the family burden as the perspective, the paper analyzes the effect of the ratio of supporting the elderly and raising children on agricultural production willingness by using Logit regression model. And the paper further studies the agricultural production willingness heterogeneity affected by the ratio under different conditions. The main finds are as follows: (1) the ratio of supporting the elderly and raising children has a significant positive impact on farmers’ agricultural production willingness, and the bigger the ratio is, the stronger the willingness is. (2) Owing to the differences in supporting conditions faced by farmers of different age groups, the ratio has a significant positive effect on the non-aging groups’ agricultural production willingness, but has little effect on the old age groups, (3) For the households with different income levels, the economic and time pressure brought by the ratio has various influences on the production willingness which are significant in the low and high income groups, while not significant in the medium income groups.