RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (7): 1507-1514.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202007004

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Research on Landscape Pattern Changes and Prediction in Port City Based on ANN-CA Model: A Case Study of the West Coast of Jiaozhou Bay

YAN Yang-han, GUO Zi-jian, WANG Wen-yuan, XU Yun-zhuo   

  1. (Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)
  • Online:2020-07-20 Published:2020-08-28

Abstract: Research on the landscape pattern changes in port city have reference significance for port city land use planning and Industrial distribution. Taking the area of the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay as an example, based on the ANNCA model and landscape ecology theory, this study simulates and predicts the land use situation in 2025. Finally, it uses the landscape pattern index to deeply analyze the landscape pattern changes in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay and its driving factor from 1995 to 2025. The results show that: the area of cultivated land, grassland and waters in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay tends to decrease during this 30year period. The proportion of urban, port and adjacent port area increased significantly to 16.19%, 7.72% and 22.20%, while nonconstruction land is gradually transformed into port and urban construction land. Landscape structure tends to be complex. In the early stage, landscape dominance gradually disappears. Degree of fragmentation, landscape richness and heterogeneity increases. patch tend to be distributed. In the later period, landscape dominance has turned up. Degree of fragmentation, landscape diversity and uniformity tend to decrease. The rapid development of social economy and port industry is the main factor driving land use and landscape pattern change in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay. With the contradiction between the port and the city has become more prominent, the expansion of the port and adjacent port land tend to be saturated. Therefore, this study puts forward suggestions to speed up the outward transfer of ports and their adjacent industries and to improve the degree of land use intensive.

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